Analysis: How Dera, Dynasty, And Drugs Will Define Punjab's 2027 Mandate

Punjab has witnessed four consecutive assembly elections that were dominated by a powerful interlocking triad: deras, dynasty, and drugs. These three Ds not only influenced the elections but also overshadowed existential crises like growing unemployment, deteriorating law and order, and a dwindling state economy.

As Punjab moves into a multi-cornered electoral battle ahead, the political parties are facing new challenges to realign their political motives, goals, and reclaim lost political ground. Upheaval in the state's traditional power structures, cracks in the dynasty fortress, rebellion within political parties, a frustrated, hyper-connected generation of voters, and failed promises to curb the menace of drugs are all expected to pave the way for a new political era in 2027.

The Importance Of Deras

The socio-religious sects known as Dera in Punjab have influenced politics and elections for the past four to five decades. Out of a total 9,000 Deras, about 300, including the Dera Sacha Sauda (DSS), Radha Swami Satsang Beas (RSSB), and Dera Sachknand Ballan (DSB), are considered major institutions. Deras are a veritable goldmine for political parties as far as the Dalit and backward class communities of voters are concerned.

A study conducted by the Lokniti-CSDS in 2022 had found that one-fourth of Punjab's electorate, mostly marginalised sections and Dalit communities, identify themselves as followers of specific Deras.

While the DSS has a stronghold in the Malwa region, Dera Sachkhand Ballan is part of the Doaba region and Radhaswami Satsang Beas is part of the Majha area - three cultural and geographical regions that cover all 117 assembly segments. The Malwa, Majha, and Doaba regions have 69, 25 and 23 assembly constituencies, respectively. The Doaba region has the highest concentration of Deras, including Dera Sachkhand Ballan, Radha Soami Satsang Beas, Divya Jyoti Jagriti Sansthan, and Dera Sant Sarwan Dass. Dera Sachkhand Ballan is a prominent Ravidasia dalit community Dera, Radha Soami Satsang attracts a mix of followers and is known as the most influential.

Dera politics has changed over time. Political analysts say they are not inclined towards a particular party. Shiromani Akali Dal's efforts to woo the Dera Sacha Sauda followers backfired in 2017 and 2022 following the controversies surrounding its chief Gurmit Ram Rahim. Radha Soami Satsang claims to be apolitical, but reports suggest it indirectly supported the Shiromani Akali Dal, as Bikram Majithia is a distant relative of the Dera chief. Top politicians can be seen visiting the Deras to seek political blessings.

PM Modi visited Dera Sachkhand Ballan on February this year to participate in the 649th birth anniversary celebrations of Sant Guru Ravidas Ji, besides seeking blessings from Dera Chief Sant Niranjan Dass. Later, in a calculated move, he was also conferred the Padma Shri. Newly appointed Punjab BJP chief Kewal Singh Dhillon also recently met Mr Dass.

PM Narendra Modi, Amit Shah, Arvind Kejriwal, and Rahul Gandhi have met Radha Soami Satsang Beas Dera chief Gurinder Singh Dhillon in the past.

"Deras may or may not support political parties, but their influence is limited and divided. Their followers come from various backgrounds; some are Sikhs, some Hindus, some dalits, or some from urban pockets. Deras may ask their followers to vote for a particular party, but the downline may have different political views or inclination," says Prof. Pramod Kumar, Chairperson, Institute for Development and Communication (IDC), Panjab University, Chandigarh.

The Sunset Of Dynasties

Dynasty politics has historically been a focal point of Punjab's politics. To understand how dynasty politics and the interpersonal relationships between key politicians influenced the political landscape, it's important to discuss the six most influential families. The family of late chief minister Pratap Singh Kairon is considered one of the most influential of its time. Kairon was close to Jawahar Lal Nehru. The Patiala Maharaja family, Majithias, Brars, Mann, and Badals, who are all Jats.

Interestingly, there are multiple high-profile matrimonial ties uniting Punjab's top political families.

While late Parkash Singh Badal's son Sukhbir Singh Badal is married to the daughter of Satyajeet Singh Majithia, his daughter Parneet Kaur is married to Pratap Singh Kairon's son Adesh Pratap Singh Kairon. Captain Amrinder Singh's and Khalistan supporter Simranjit Singh Mann's wives are real sisters. Captain Amrinder Singh, Harcharan Singh Brar, and Pratap Singh Kairon are also relatives. Captain's brother Malvinder Singh's sister-in-law is married to the family of Harcharan Singh Brar, whose wife is a niece of Partap Singh Kairon.

These families ruled the state for decades, but now, the dynastic politics seems to have lost its sheen. They are not as influential today as they used to be in the past. Captain Amrinder Singh lost the assembly election in his home turf Patila in 2022, and all Badals, including the late Parkash Singh Badal, Sukhbir Singh Badal, Bikram Majithia and Manpreet Singh Badal, faced humiliating defeat from newcomers from the Aam Aadmi Party. But this does not mean that the dynasts have lost interest in politics. Sukhbir Badal, Bikam Majithia and Manpreet Badal, along with the family of Captain Amarinder Singh's family, including his wife Preneet Kaur and daughter Jai Inder Kaur, besides others, are likely to get tickets from their respective political parties.

"The Dera and Dynasty have exhausted their electoral currency value. It has been spent in the past. It is not Dynasty, Dera, and Drugs but Doles, Drugs, and Deras which can influence 2026 assembly elections," Professor Pramod Kumar added.

Chasing A Mirage

While dynasty politics and dera politics, according to psephologists, will not impact the 2027 assembly elections much, the state's drug problem will be a major poll plank.

Causing generational trauma to Punjab, the menace of drugs remains a mere political stepping stone for leaders across party lines. Captain Amrinder Singh had promised to end it in four weeks; Arvind Kejriwal promised action within two to three months. The BJP promises to completely eradicate Punjab's drug menace within two years of forming a state government.

While annual heroin seizures averaged between 300 and 500 kg during the SAD-BJP regime annually between 2012 and 2017, they went up to 700 kg during the Congress regime between 2017 and 2022. The seizures went up by 2,000 kg in the post-2022 period during the AAP regime.

Drawing heavy criticism from the opposition and people who allege that drug trafficking has only spiralled during the AAP regime. The party, however, created a perception about controlling drugs and exposing the top brass. Arrests of opposition leaders like Bikram Majithia of SAD and Sukhpal Khaira of Congress resulted in nothing as they were granted bail. Three AAP leaders have also been arrested for drug smuggling. While the party's youth wing leader, Lovepreet Singh, was arrested with 4.3 kg heroin in March 2026, Moga Mayor Baljit Singh Chani was suspended for involvement with a drug racket in November 2025. The party's local village headman, Paramjit Singh, was also arrested in a drug smuggling case in February 2023 in Tarn Taran.

After having failed to control the drug problem through enforcement, the AAP government has now initiated a structural shift by implementing evidence-based anti-drug education in the school curriculum.

"As far as the issue of drugs is concerned, people will not trust Congress and AAP, whose promises are untrue. Be it Captain Amarinder Singh's vow to end the menace, holding Gutka Sahib (holy Sikh book), or the changing timeline of the ruling AAP from two to three months and then six months or more. All eyes will be on the BJP as Union Home Minister Amit Shah has promised to break the nexus in two years. AAP may be vocal about its tirade against drugs, but the BJP will be a major beneficiary," says Prof Ashutosh Kumar, Head, Department of Political Science, Panjab University.

To conclude, Punjab's old trinity of deras, dynasty and drugs is under pressure and lacks certainty. The political parties are, in fact, playing a cautious game regarding the use of drug money and Dera votes. The Shiromani Akali Dal is shying away from seeking help from Dera Sacha Sauda because hardliner groups, besides the Akal Takht, are eager to expose those who helped Gurmeet Ram Rahim in a blasphemy case. CM Bhagwant Mann himself is facing a sacrilege allegation and has been declared Guru Dokhi. Political parties will also be cautious about giving tickets to dynasts who were defeated in the 2022 assembly elections. The internal rebellion in Congress, the disintegration of the Shiromani Akali Dal, and the rise of the hardliner Amritpal-led Akali Dal (Waris Punjab De) may surprise the election outcome in 2027.