The IMD prediction is at odds with the outlook from Skymet.
India, which relies on rain for the vast share of its water, forecast that the monsoon will be normal this year, potentially easing concerns over the impact on agriculture production and economic growth.
Showers during the June-September rainy season is likely to be 96% of a long-term average, according to the India Meteorological Department. The El Nino weather condition, normally triggered by warm water in the equatorial Pacific, could influence the monsoon in the second half of the season, it said.
Hundreds of millions of farmers across Asia's third-largest economy depend on the annual monsoon to nourish their fields. Bountiful rains may boost production of crops like rice, soybeans, corn and sugar cane, lowering food prices and aiding the government's efforts to cool inflation.
The IMD prediction is at odds with the outlook from Skymet. The private forecaster on Monday predicted a below-average monsoon, saying the coming season is likely to bring only 94% of the rain the country usually gets from June to September.
The weather department's forecast has a margin of error of 5%. Rainfall between 96% and 104% of the historical average is considered normal. Last year's monsoon rains were 106% of the average, boosting foodgrain output in 2022-23.
The risk of lower rainfall remains, based on IMD's forecast probability, said Anubhuti Sahay, the Mumbai-based South Asia chief economist at Standard Chartered Plc. Inflation is likely to hover around 5.3% in the current fiscal year and food inflation at 5.7% given reduced wheat stockpiles, rising rural wages and the likelihood of lower rainfall, she added.
The monsoon generally hits Kerala in the first week of June, before moving north to cover most of the nation.
--With assistance from Rakesh Sharma.
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