Deaths From Chronic Diseases Increase In India, Decline In World: Study

The chances of an Indian dying of a non-communicable disease - like cardiovascular conditions, cancer, or chronic respiratory illnesses - increased between 2010 and 2019, i.e., the decade leading up to the Covid pandemic, according to a study published in The Lancet.

It increased by 2.1 per cent for women and 0.1 per cent for men, the lead author, Professor Majid Ezzati of the School of Public Health in London's Imperial College, said. The mortality risk, the professor said, is greatest for females over the age of 40 and males over the age of 55.

The worrying point is that the probability of a woman dying of an NCD - between birth and the age of 80 - has increased after a slight decrease in the previous decade. The figure was 46.7 per cent in 2001 and 46.6 per cent in 2011 before jumping to 48.7 per cent in 2019.

For men the smaller increase in probability has been attributed to improved diagnosis and treatment of eight of 20 causes of death, including ischemic heart disease and liver cirrhosis.

There were "particularly large contributions" to an increase in overall NCD mortality from ischaemic heart disease and diabetes (including chronic kidney disease due to diabetes) for both sexes for the 2010-2019 period, the paper said.

There were decreases from cirrhosis of the liver and the residual category of all other NCDs for both sexes, with additional improvements for males in stomach cancer, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease, stroke, and the residual category of all other circulatory diseases.

The data also suggested concerning trends for lung cancer in India, which was one of only five countries to show increased mortality in such cases.

The other countries are Armenia, Iran, Egypt, and Papua New Guinea.

However, the authors have cautioned against too close a scrutiny of their findings, citing the "very low" quality of data. As a result, the findings are "subject to substantial uncertainty".

The broader findings indicated the probability of dying from a NCD increased in 33 of 185 countries for women and 38 for men. It decreased in 152 for the latter and 147 for the former.