Cut motion: Crack in Opposition ranks, govt to sail through?

New Delhi: The Opposition's move to put the government on the mat by forcing a vote on the cut motions against the hike in fuel and urea prices seems to have lost steam. And the government seems confident of surviving the cut motions today. (Read: What is cut motion?)

The BSP, the SP and the RJD are officially saying that they are still to take a final decision but sources say they will abstain from the vote. (Read: Cut Motion: Has Congress cut a deal with Mayawati?)

So, while the Left along with the AIADMK, BJD and the TDP plan to move cut motions and insist on a vote, the RJD and the SP intend to interrupt the proceedings. So, the 13-party opposition garnered by the CPM to vote against the government seems to have fallen apart.

The BJP however, is determined to go ahead with the cut motions and has issued a 3-line whip asking all MPs to present in Parliament.

This is perhaps the reason why the UPA is confident of sailing through the cut motion.

Speaking to reporters a day before, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said: "We are as confident as possible." While Sonia Gandhi echoed the same she said: "Of course we are confident."

Let's take a quick look now at how the numbers stack up for the UPA in the Lok Sabha which perhaps explains why the PM and Sonia Gandhi are confident.

(Also read: DMK issues whip over cut motion)

Cut motion numbers

The UPA has 274, the half way mark is 272.

The BSP has 21 MPs, if it supports the government the UPA's number goes up to 295 in which case the government is safe.

If the BSP abstains from voting, the half way mark comes down to 261, the government would still be safe.

The SP and the RJD have 27 MPs, if they support the government the UPA's number goes up to 301, this will ensure the government is safe.

And if the SP and the RJD abstain, the half way mark comes down to 254 and the government would be safe.

Ajit Singh and Deve Gowda are part of the 13 party Opposition front.