Bypolls In Jammu And Kashmir: 1st Popularity Test For Omar Abdullah

As Omar Abdullah's government completes one year this month, it's facing its first popularity test - the bypolls for two assembly seats in Jammu and Kashmir. Budgam and Nagrota seats will go to the polls on November 11. The results will be declared on 14 with the big Bihar election results.

The Budgam seat was one of the two assembly constituencies Omar Abdullah had won in the assembly elections in October last year. After taking over as Chief Minister, Abdullah vacated Budgam and retained the Ganderbal seat, the family bastion of the Abdullahs in Kashmir.

The Nagrota seat in Jammu fell vacant after the death of BJP leader Devender Singh Rana. Rana was a close confidant of Abdullah before he joined the BJP.

The Chief Minister, who has often complained of limitations to deliver under the overarching powers of the Lieutenant Governor, will face the same electorate he had literally promised the moon a year ago; Restoration of Jammu and Kashmir's autonomy, statehood, and one lakh jobs are among the numerous promises the National Conference has made in its manifesto. One year on, the NC government has precious little to show.

Ahead of the bypolls, Abdullah has reframed his perspective and tried to set more realistic expectations. He appears to have successfully linked the delay in restoration of statehood to his decision not to align with the BJP.

Over the last few weeks, Abdullah said that the restoration of statehood of Jammu and Kashmir could have been achieved if he had joined hands with the BJP. But he will never do that, even if it means waiting longer for statehood.

"I had the option of aligning with the BJP and forming the government with them for the early restoration of statehood. But I will never do that. I will rather resign than allow them to come to power through us," Abdullah said.

Abdullah said he could have chosen the path of his arch-rival, the PDP, which formed government with the BJP in 2015. "But I chose a different path to prevent the BJP from gaining power in J&K," he said.

It appears to have helped Abdullah to change goal posts. His opponents praised him for choosing principles over opportunism.

"Omar Abdullah had taken votes on the promise of not aligning with the BJP and keeping them out of power. It shows his political honesty when he reiterates his stand," said Altaf Bukhari, President J&K Apni Party.

Bukhari castigated the PDP for doing the opposite when they got votes in 2014 in the name of keeping the BJP away.

"In 2014, the PDP had taken votes to keep the BJP away, but later joined hands with them. The consequences of that decision are visible today. Political credibility can only be restored when leaders uphold their promise and avoid political opportunism," said Bukhari.

But the fight for Budgam, a seat he had comfortably won just a year ago, is not so simple anymore for Omar Abdullah. Estranged National Conference MP Agra Ruhullah has publicly blamed the party leadership for denigrating the mandate, compromising dignity and not fighting for the statehood and constitutional rights of Jammu and Kashmir. Aga has been the face of NC in Budgam and has won several elections from there in the past.

So far, there is no indication of any rapprochement, and it will surely have an impact on the party's campaigning and its public messaging. The party has also not announced its candidate even as Nasir Aslam Wani, the chief minister's adviser, is widely believed to be the party's pick. Aga Syed Muntazir is the likely PDP candidate.