Mahagathbandhan Loses Ground In Bihar, Predict Exit Polls. PK Factor To Blame?

The poll of exit polls has painted a particularly grim picture of the performance of the opposition Grand Alliance, giving it far fewer than the 110 seats it won in 2020. The worst hit, according to their estimates, is Lalu Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Dal, which had emerged as the single-largest party last time. That honour, apparently, will go to the BJP this time.

Exit polls, though, don't always get it right. Most have got Bihar wrong multiple times. 

This time, nine exit polls -- including Dainik Bhaskar, Matrize, People's Insight, Chanakya Strategies  and People's Pulse -- have predicted an NDA victory, with figures ranging from 130 to 167. The Mahagathbandhan's score, they predict, will be between 73 and 108. 

The average of the exit polls indicates that the ruling NDA will get 147 and the Grand Alliance 90 seats. 

Election analyst turned politician Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj party,  widely expected to be the X factor in this election, will not have much of an effect, the exit polls predicted. The party could open its account - barely -- winning between zero to five seats. The average figure is 1. But there is speculation that even with that score, it could eat into the votes of the opposition alliance, pushing it miles behind the NDA. 

The individual performances of the parties in Grand Alliance have dropped, the exit polls indicate. While a detailed break-up of all the parties were not available, both RJD and the Congress have performed poorly, the exit polls say. 

The RJD will score between 57 and 69 seats - down from the 75 it won five years ago. The Congress, which got much flak for its poor performance after winning 19 seats, will get no more than 14 this time, exit polls predicted. Its lower range is 11. 

The BJP will win between 67 and 70 seats. While this will make it the highest scorer, it is still way below the bar the RJD set last time. It is less than even the 75 seats it won last time. 

Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal United is expected to do much better than last time. The party, which won just 43 seats, is expected to get between 58 and 71 seats this time.