The by-elections in two assembly seats in Gujarat are over, and the results declared. Yet, the heat of both victory and defeat continues to be felt by the opposition parties - the Congress and the AAP (Aam Aadmi Party). While the Congress drew a blank, the AAP secured a win in Visavadar, while the ruling BJP retained the Kadi seat.
On June 27, as the AAP was in a celebratory mood after its big win in Visavadar, its MLA from Botad, Umesh Makwana, resigned from all party posts except his position as legislator.
Makwana, who was AAP's national secretary and whip in the state assembly, was subsequently suspended for five years by Gujarat AAP president Isudan Gadhvi for alleged anti-party activities. Makwana's apparent grievance was that the AAP had failed to raise issues concerning backward classes - an accusation the party leadership refuted, claiming he was acting on instructions from the BJP.
Earlier, on June 23, taking 'moral responsibility' for the loss in both Visavadar and Kadi, Gujarat Pradesh Congress Committee (GPCC) president Shaktisinh Gohil announced his resignation, soon after the results were declared.
So, what continues to plague the opposition parties in Gujarat?
Bitter Truth
In 2022, after the BJP won 156 of the total 182 assembly seats - the highest tally since Independence - the opposition was virtually decimated.
In the high-stakes battle for Visavadar, AAP's Gopal Italia secured 75,942 votes, while BJP's Kirit Patel got 58,388. Italia won by a margin of 17,554 votes. The Congress candidate, Nitin Ranpariya, finished a distant third with 5,501 votes. The AAP's vote share was 53.3 per cent, the BJP's 41 per cent, and the Congress' just 3.9 per cent.
In Kadi, BJP's Rajendra Chavda won with 99,742 votes. The Congress' Ramesh Chavda polled 60,290 votes, and AAP's Jagdish Chavda got a mere 3,089.
Italia's rise in the AAP was swift. He joined the party in 2020 and became its state chief the same year. The party projected him as its face in Gujarat for the 2022 assembly elections. Now, having won the bypoll, the leadership may reward him with the post of chief whip in the assembly.
The AAP is in a buoyant space at the moment. After its Visavadar victory, leaders at both state and national levels are ecstatic.
AAP national convener Arvind Kejriwal hailed the performance, calling it a "semi-final to 2027" and a clear sign that voters would reject both the BJP and the Congress.
"The BJP had said no other party could win the byelections. AAP has broken the myth. There is a positive wave for AAP in Gujarat. We are now the main opposition in the state," said Karan Barot, AAP spokesperson and state media coordinator.
For the Congress, Gohil's resignation came as a surprise to party workers and state leaders. The Congress hadn't won either seat in 2020 and wasn't expected to win this time either.
According to sources, Gohil was upset over the central leadership's recent announcement - just two days before the election results - of 40 new district presidents in Gujarat. He was reportedly unhappy with these appointments. Following Rahul Gandhi's repeated statements about revamping the Gujarat unit - including during the AICC session in Ahmedabad earlier this year - there were hopes of a major shake-up to counter the BJP in 2027. Gohil's abrupt departure has now deepened disillusionment within the party.
Factors at Play
Along with the prestige battle, Visavadar in Junagadh district (part of the Saurashtra region) was also a battle of perception. Though Gujarat has been governed by the BJP since 1998, Visavadar - a Patidar (Patel)-dominated constituency - has resisted the BJP's advances for 18 years. The BJP was keen to wrest the seat.
The Patidar community, estimated to make up 12-15 per cent of Gujarat's population, holds sway in 48 of the state's 182 Assembly constituencies. However, Italia's win may not signify an AAP upsurge.
"AAP's victory in Visavadar is not a party victory but a personal one. Gopal Italia is an outspoken politician - the Robin Hood of politics," says Vishnu Pandya, a senior political analyst.
"Italia's strategy in Visavadar resembled the old Jan Sangh style - going directly to the people, identifying local problems, and promising to raise them in the Vidhan Sabha - especially invoking the name of Keshubhai Patel."
Pandya also emphasised that in Saurashtra, politics has long revolved around the Patidar community.
On the BJP and Congress defeats, he said, "The BJP candidate suffered due to internal rifts and weak leadership. The state leadership lacked influence. The Congress was defeated even before the election began."
The people of Gujarat have given little space to the opposition in the 2025 bypolls. But will the opposition parties unite as part of the INDIA bloc for the 2027 elections?
Currently, the Congress is miffed with AAP's approach in Gujarat. While it hasn't ruled out a future alliance, tensions remain. "Our party has always acted like the big brother in the alliance, giving space to others. But AAP must do some soul-searching. It can't just reap the benefits of an alliance and then ditch us like they did in Haryana," says Manish Doshi, Congress spokesperson in Gujarat.
Even if the opposition unites, defeating the BJP in 2027 will be an uphill task. Despite signs of anti-incumbency and possible erosion of credibility, Chief Minister Bhupendra Patel is widely seen as a competent administrator with a clean image.
