Tamil Nadu will see a three-cornered contest this time
Tamil Nadu's 39 Lok Sabha seats and the fact that it is the fifth-largest state in terms of representation in the Lok Sabha, make it electorally important enough, and this can be seen in the way both the BJP and the INDIA alliance have been making it a focus of their campaigns. What makes it indispensable in these general elections, however, is that the state may hold the key for the BJP if it wants to get anywhere close to its stated target of 370 seats on its own and has, thus, seen the opposition direct all its energies into keeping the party out.
All 39 seats in the state will go to the polls in the first phase on Friday and the days leading up to it have seen a concerted push from the BJP, led by its heaviest hitter, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, holding a spate of rallies in the state - including two on Wednesday. The party is hoping to do better in the south, where it is perceived as relatively weak, and Tamil Nadu - where it has failed to win even one Lok Sabha seat since 2014 - will be crucial in that effort.
Tamil Nadu has been dominated by Dravidian politics and the DMK, in alliance with the Congress, the Left and other parties, won 38 of the 39 seats in 2019. The BJP failed to open its account, with a vote share of just 3.66%, while its ally, the AIADMK won the lone remaining seat.
In the 2019 elections, the BJP had won only 29 of the 130 constituencies in the south (including one seat in Puducherry), 25 of which had come from Karnataka and four from Telangana.
Will The Push Work?
The BJP is hoping that the things it has done to reach out to the people in the state, including the Sengol being placed in the new Parliament, the attempt to portray the Congress as weak by claiming that the Katchatheevu island was "surrendered" to Sri Lanka by the party, and the multiple rallies by PM Modi, Amit Shah and others will reverse its fortunes in the state.
Another trump card for the BJP is the state President K Annamalai, a former IPS officer, who is seen as having galvanised the party in the state. The outspoken politician's six-month-long En Mann En Makkal (My Land, My People) foot march, which covered all 234 Assembly constituencies in the state, is also said to have helped bolster public opinion in favour of the party.
In the 2019 elections, the BJP was in an alliance with the AIADMK, but the two parties have parted ways and the state will see a three-cornered fight this time, which will make the contest even harder for the ruling party at the Centre.
Alliances
The DMK is contesting 21 seats this time, the Congress nine, while the CPI, CPM and the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) have got two each. Other allies, like Vaiko's Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK), Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) and Kongunadu Makkal Desiya Katchi (KMDK) will contest one constituency each. The alliance is being supported by Kamal Haasan's Makkal Needhi Maiam, which will not be putting up any candidate.
The AIADMK, led by Edappadi K. Palaniswami, has entered the fray in an alliance with Vijayakanth's Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), Puthiya Tamilagam (PT) and the Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI). The AIADMK will contest 34 seats - with PT and the SDPI fielding candidates on the party's symbol - while the DMDK has been allotted five. The alliance is being backed by the All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), led by Asaduddin Owaisi.
The BJP is contesting 23 seats in an alliance with nine smaller parties. The Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) has got 10 constituencies, three have gone to the kitty of Tamil Maanila Congress (Moopanar) and two will be contested by TTV Dhinakaran's Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam. AIADMK rebel O Panneerselvam will contest as an Independent, backed by the alliance; and the Puthiya Needhi Katchi, Indhiya Jananayaga Katchi and the Tamizhaga Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam will contest on the BJP symbol.