Shivraj Singh Chouhan is the longest-serving Chief Minister from the BJP
With the BJP's recent internal surveys and intelligence reports pointing towards alarmingly high anti-incumbency against the Shivraj Singh Chouhan government and individual legislators, the possibility of BJP planning a major surgery in Madhya Pradesh, on the lines of the highly successful Gujarat model, is high.
At least two to three recent internal surveys of the RSS-BJP and concurrent intelligence reports have clearly pointed to the party's leadership in Delhi that the road to success in Madhya Pradesh, where election is due next year, will be tough given the mounting anti-incumbency against the present government, which has been in power for 18 long years as well as current BJP MLAs.
It is a worrisome situation for the BJP in Gwalior-Chambal, Bundelkhand and Vindhya regions, the home turf of Union Ministers Jyotiraditya Scindia, Narendra Singh Tomar, state Home Minister Narottam Mishra and state party chief VD Sharma, sources said.
Vindhya in the 2018 election was the BJP's saving grace. In the context of recent survey reports, BJP's planners may be contemplating major overhaul and surgery in Madhya Pradesh on lines of Gujarat, where not only was the Chief Minister and his cabinet refreshed 15 months before the assembly election, but tickets to sitting MLAs were discontinued, sources said.
In Harda, when reporters asked this question to senior BJP leader Kailash Vijayvargiya, he said, "Why only in Madhya Pradesh? The Gujarat model will be replicated in the entire country. Gujarat is an ideal state for us, in every five years we won with higher percentage of votes."
A BJP MLA from Maihar, Narayan Tripathi, has written to BJP national president JP Nadda, seeking changes in both the Shivraj Singh Chouhan-led BJP government and VD Sharma-led state organisation, on the lines of neighbouring Gujarat.
But Narottam Mishra said the situation in every state is different. "There is nothing as such in Madhya Pradesh as of now," he said. When reporters asked him about the letter, he said, "Yes, he (Narayan Tripathi) has written letters earlier also."
Unlike Gujarat, the surgery in Madhya Pradesh may start with major overhauling of the state's party organisation. The party may revamp Shivraj Singh Chouhan's ministerial team, in which four berths are still vacant.
Shivraj Singh Chouhan, the longest-serving Chief Minister from the BJP, remains possibly the most formidable Other Backward Classes (OBC) politician in the state, and so the possibility of him being replaced with someone else is not strong.
But the state BJP chief, whose three-year tenure comes to end in February, will possibly be replaced by some tribal or Dalit face.
The organisational changes in Madhya Pradesh will be followed by a major cabinet revamp, with many young faces, leaders from neglected the Vindhya region as well as Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes sections, besides some Brahmin politicians being drafted in the new ministerial team to strike the right caste, age and region balance, sources said.
The current cabinet has 30 ministers, and a maximum of 10 ministers are Kshatriyas. Eight ministers including the Chief Minister are OBCs. Three are from SC and four from ST. Two ministers are Brahmins.
BJP sources said the recent internal surveys of the party are certainly going to serve as the basis for denial of tickets to a large number of sitting MLAs, whose numbers could run between 60 and 70 out of the present 127 MLAs.
The Congress took a dig at the surveys. "If BJP contests the assembly elections in the name of Prime Minister and if Gujarat model is replicated, then it is clear that people do not like the face of Shivraj Singh, who has been holding the post of Chief Minister for 16 years, in such a situation the money he spent on his branding should be recovered from him," state Congress leader KK Mishra said.
Keeping into account what denial of tickets to big names who have been in the assembly for over 20 years triggered in Himachal Pradesh, where many BJP MLAs rebelled, big leaders in Madhya Pradesh may be consulted and their replacements decided only after taking them into confidence, sources said.
Some of these big leaders or their families in exceptional circumstances may even be considered as candidates in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, sources said.