The Thesis
India's capital formation, banking, and consumption engines are moving in sync as West Asia risk partially recedes. RBI holding at 5.25% and Brent stable near $84 after the partial Iran-Oman Hormuz corridor deal keep domestic-equity conditions firm. PSU banks anchored Thursday with Rs 4,013 Cr of DII inflows - institutional conviction holding even as US equities dipped on earnings caution.

Where We're Concentrated
Anchored in India's infrastructure demand chain - steel feeding roads and buildings, commercial vehicles executing project logistics, and PSU banking financing the cycle - all supported by RBI's rate pause and strong domestic flows. Domestic electronics manufacturing adds PLI-driven import-substitution exposure as India reduces hardware dependence. Consumer retail rounds the basket, capturing urban spending in a low-VIX, stable-rate environment. The thesis breaks if a permanent Hormuz resolution collapses crude sharply, rotating capital away from domestic plays into energy.

Conviction Picks
Highest Conviction
JSW Steel Ltd.
Steel anchors India's infrastructure pipeline; flat Brent near $84 eases energy cost pressure on rolling margins.
State Bank of India
PSU banking leads domestic flows with DII buying at ₹4,013 Cr Thursday; RBI's rate pause stabilises NIM trajectory.
Ashok Leyland Ltd.
Commercial vehicle demand tracks accelerating road-project execution; steady credit costs keep fleet economics sound.
PG Electroplast Ltd.
Domestic electronics assembly scales on PLI demand; import substitution momentum insulates from oil-driven cost swings.
Trent Ltd.
Urban retail widens into a stable-rate, low-VIX environment; household spending holds as crude costs plateau near $84.
One Thing to Watch
Hormuz corridor durability The Iran-Oman arrangement covers only a 2-4 month shipping route - a permanent deal would flush crude 5-8% lower, remove the inflation buffer anchoring domestic equities, and trigger rotation into energy names on Nifty 500.

The wars of recent years have pushed drones, loitering munitions, precision weapons, and air-defence systems to the centre of military planning. Read full report here

Vikram Subburaj, CEO, Giottus.com

Bitcoin entered August 7 near $64,300, almost unchanged over 24 hours and little moved from where it traded a week earlier. The apparent calm conceals a market pulled in two directions. US exchange-traded funds have begun attracting money again and activity on the Bitcoin network has strengthened. Yet neither has been sufficient to push the asset beyond the range that has contained it for several weeks.

The improvement in ETF demand is the clearest positive development. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $170.1 million on August 3, $211.5 million on August 4, and $244.4 million on August 5. The August 6 tally stood at a provisional $9.3 million, taking the month-to-date total to approximately $635 million. BlackRock's IBIT contributed $478.5 million during the first three sessions. This is more than three-quarters of the money received by the funds.

This reverses the $265.4 million outflow recorded on July 31. It does not, however, establish that institutional demand has fully recovered. Glassnode estimates that spot ETFs returned about 65,800 BTC to the market in June, their worst month on record. The latest inflows are therefore better understood as a change in direction rather than a complete repair of the demand lost during the second quarter.
Bitcoin's restrained response also offers a useful reading of the market. Fresh ETF money is presently absorbing available supply and supporting the price around $63,000-$64,000. It is not yet creating enough demand to force a breakout. 

On-chain activity increased sharply after the Coldcard wallet exploit, but the movement did not translate into equivalent selling pressure. About 119,000 BTC that had remained dormant for more than a year moved during the following three days. Only around 10% reached exchanges, while the supply held in wallets less than a month old rose 40%. The data suggest that many holders transferred their Bitcoin to new wallets rather than preparing to sell it. 

The price levels reflect this uncertainty. Bitcoin's immediate support lies at $64,000, followed by a more important zone between $63,000 and $63,400. A daily close below $63,000 could open a test of $62,500 and, subsequently, $60,000. On the upside, Bitcoin must first clear $64,900-$65,200. The larger hurdle is between $66,000 and $66,600. A sustained close above $66,600 would bring $67,000 and then $68,700-$69,000 into view.

The lack of conviction is more pronounced among altcoins. Ethereum gained 0.35% to about $1,905 and BNB was nearly unchanged at $593. XRP declined 1.05% to $1.03, Solana lost 1.08% to trade near $72.60 and TRON slipped 0.32% to $0.327. Altcoin open interest has fallen approximately 15% over the past month, while CoinMarketCap's Altcoin Season Index stood at 42 out of 100. Capital is favouring Bitcoin and Ethereum rather than moving broadly across the market.

The next direction may be decided outside crypto. The US employment report due on August 7 is expected to show that the economy added between 80,000 and 83,000 jobs in July, compared with 57,000 in June. Unemployment is forecast to remain at 4.2%. The earlier ADP report showed only 44,000 private-sector jobs against an expectation of approximately 75,000.

The employment data carry additional weight because the US Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50%-3.75% in July by a 9-3 vote. The three dissenters preferred a 25-basis-point increase. A strong jobs report would support their argument that the economy can withstand tighter policy. A weak reading would reduce the probability of an increase and could ease pressure on risk assets. July consumer inflation follows on August 12, with producer prices due on August 13. Oil has also moved back above $83 a barrel as tensions in the Middle East have intensified. If higher energy costs begin feeding into inflation, the Fed will have less room to soften its position.

Our advice: Bitcoin is consequently approaching the macro calendar with stronger institutional support but without a confirmed price trend. ETF inflows have helped protect the lower end of the range. A move above $66,600 would show that this demand is beginning to influence price. Until then, investors should treat the present stability as a period for measured accumulation, not an invitation to increase leverage.

Nischal Shetty, founder, WazirX

"Crypto markets remained stable despite pressure from AI stocks, higher oil prices, bond yields and a stronger US dollar. The limited decline indicated that participation remained steady, even as the environment reduced demand for risk assets.

Hopes of an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz supported sentiment. However, crude oil benchmarks gained more than 1%, showing that concerns around energy supplies have not eased. For crypto, sustained oil price growth could keep inflation and interest-rate expectations elevated, limiting liquidity and momentum.

Regulatory developments in the US remained in focus. The CLARITY Act could establish clearer rules for crypto businesses and investors, supporting institutional participation. However, disagreement over an ethics clause has delayed the bill's progress. Its approval could become a long-term catalyst, although the immediate market impact remains limited.

Crypto ETF flows remained selective as macro concerns placed pressure on Bitcoin funds. Hyperliquid ETF inflows slowed in July and early August after strong demand in May and June, while cumulative XRP ETF inflows were expected to move beyond $1.51 billion, showing continued interest in regulated digital asset exposure.

Bitcoin trades near $64,214, with its summary indicating Sell as oscillators weaken and moving averages remain mixed. RSI at 51.35 remains neutral. Support sits around $64,035-$64,060, with resistance near $64,355. On the other hand, Ethereum trades near $1,898, with a Neutral summary, Buy-leaning moving averages and an RSI of 54.52. Support lies around $1,885-$1,893, while a break above $1,900 could strengthen momentum.

BTC Futures traders could monitor the $64,035-$64,060 support zone and resistance around $64,355. Holding above support may keep positioning balanced, while a move through resistance could bring changes in open interest and funding rates. For ETH Futures traders, $1,885-$1,893 remains the nearest support area, with $1,900 as resistance. Traders should track volume and liquidation activity before responding to moves outside these levels."

Gaurav Udani, Founder, Thincredblu Securities 

Nifty is expected to open lower around 24,535, down nearly 100 points, indicating a subdued start after the recent rally.

The index is likely witnessing some profit booking, but the broader trend remains positive as long as key support levels hold. 24,400-24,500 will be the immediate support zone, where buying interest is expected to emerge on declines.

On the upside, 24,700-24,800 remains the key resistance range. A decisive move above this zone could signal a continuation of the ongoing uptrend and pave the way for fresh highs.

The current dip should be viewed with caution rather than panic. As long as Nifty holds above the 24,400 support zone, the preferred strategy remains buy on dips, while traders should avoid aggressive short positions against the prevailing trend.

Akshat Siddhant, Lead quant analyst, Mudrex

Crude oil has rebounded above $78 a barrel, gaining 2-3% over the past two sessions, after Iran's proposed Strait of Hormuz agreement proved more restrictive than markets had expected. The draft reportedly bars US and Israeli vessels, imposes a 20% cargo penalty on violators, and seeks compensation, while fresh explosions have revived supply concerns. The developments have partially reversed this week's sharp decline in oil prices. Meanwhile, gold is holding in the $4,200-$4,250 an ounce range after Wednesday's rally to a seven-week high near $4,300, while silver has weakened toward $61. Any further geopolitical escalation over the weekend could push oil back above $80, with spillover effects on precious metals.

Riya Sehgal, Research Analyst, Delta Exchange

Bitcoin is trading around $64,400, with the market consolidating ahead of the U.S. employment report. The broader risk backdrop remains finely balanced, as resilient U.S. labour data and renewed strength in crude oil keep inflation and interest-rate expectations in focus. A softer employment print could ease Treasury yields and the dollar, providing support to crypto and other risk assets, while stronger-than-expected jobs and wage growth could revive expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy.

Bitcoin is holding the $64,000-$64,200 support zone. A break above $64,750-$65,000 could open $65,250-$65,600, while a move below $64,000 may expose $63,750 and the $62,400-$63,100 demand zone.

Ethereum is near $1,900, with resistance at $1,900-$1,925. A breakout above $1,925 could target $1,945-$1,975, while $1,875-$1,890 is the first support zone.

Gold remains stronger, with support at $4,165-$4,200 and resistance near $4,280. A breakout could bring $4,320-$4,360 into focus.

The wars of recent years have pushed drones, loitering munitions, precision weapons, and air-defence systems to the centre of military planning. Read full report here

BTC remained range-bound between $64,000 and $65,000 after briefly testing the upper end of the range but failing to hold above it. Repeated rejections near $65,000 indicate continued selling pressure, while broader sentiment stayed cautious as markets awaited clearer geopolitical and macroeconomic signals. Hopes of reopening the Strait of Hormuz provided little support, with oil prices holding near $76 per barrel. Near-term support sits at $64,350-$64,400, and a break below this zone could expose $64,200. On the upside, reclaiming $64,600 may pave the way for another move toward $64,800-$65,000. 

Prateek Gupta, Head of Business, Mudrex

Bitcoin is attempting to reclaim the $65,000 level ahead of today's US jobs report, with the market approaching a critical technical and liquidity zone. The $65,000 mark has emerged as the largest short-liquidation cluster, adding to the volatility. Institutional demand continues to grow strong, with US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracting $626 million in net inflows over the past three trading sessions. Part of these inflows is coming from investors shifting from self-custody to ETFs following the Coldcard wallet security breach. A weekly close above $65,000 could make way toward $70,000, while a close below $63,000 may expose Bitcoin to a deeper correction toward $60,000.

Rajesh Palviya, Head of Research, Axis Direct

The Nifty 50 ended Thursday at 24,636, up 11 points, extending its consolidation phase for a third consecutive session after the recent 1,100-point rally. While the benchmark remained range-bound, stock-specific action dominated the market. Reliance Industries surged 3.5% following large block deals, while SBI gained 3% ahead of its June-quarter earnings. On the other hand, Power Grid declined nearly 4% after a weak quarterly performance. The Sensex advanced 374 points to 78,955, though broader markets remained under pressure with midcap stocks witnessing profit booking. Global cues turned cautious overnight as the Dow Jones fell 464 points, ending its record streak, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also closed marginally lower amid rising US Treasury yields and weaker-than-expected earnings from memory-chip makers.

Asian markets are trading subdued this morning, with Japanese equities extending their technology-led decline. Brent crude has climbed above $83 per barrel following fresh geopolitical tensions near the Strait of Hormuz, posing a potential risk for India as a major crude importer. Gold is holding steady near $4,280, while GIFT Nifty is indicating a flat start around the 24,650 mark.

Technically, the market continues to exhibit a cautious undertone as long as the Nifty remains below the 24,800 level. A sustained move above this hurdle could pave the way towards the 25,000 mark. On the downside, immediate support is placed in the 24,500-24,400 zone, with a breach potentially dragging the index towards 24,300. Investors will closely monitor the US July payrolls data later today for directional cues, while any easing in crude oil prices could provide fresh momentum for the ongoing recovery.

At the close on Thursday, the total market cap of all BSE Sensex companies stood at Rs 4,93,62,011.