This Article is From Sep 30, 2013

Lalu Prasad's conviction set to change political math, can RJD recover?

Lalu Prasad's conviction set to change political math, can RJD recover?

Rashtriya Janata Dal chief Lalu Prasad outside the Ranchi court on Monday morning.

Ranchi, Jharkhand: Lalu Prasad Yadav's conviction in the 17-year-old fodder scam case not only brings major changes for his Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), but also signals the reworking of political arithmetic in Bihar and national politics ahead of polls due in May.

The 66-year-old Bihar politician has been jailed and stands disqualified as a Member of Parliament. More significantly for his party, he will not be able to contest next year's national election, and even the one after that.

A Supreme Court order bars convicted lawmakers from contesting polls for six years after they complete their sentence.

"RJD has always done immensely better when confronted with bad times," said RJD spokesperson Manoj Jha, echoing the words of party MP Prabhunath Singh, who has said that whenever Lalu went to jail, his party became stronger.

While Mr Prasad's own party is trying to see the flipside, his long break from electoral politics has heartened rivals.

Lalu Prasad's rise in the 1990s was attributed to his popularity among the Yadavs and minorities. His witty and brash manner was seen to have changed the style of politics in the country at the time.
 
"Justice has been done for the big loot of the state treasury, we welcome the court verdict," said the BJP, which hopes to benefit from a weakened RJD and its ally Congress. The party had ended its 17-year alliance with the ruling Janata Dal-United on bitter terms.

For the Congress, it means the loss of a loyal ally, even though the party has been distancing itself from the RJD and gravitating towards Lalu's biggest rival Nitish Kumar, the chief minister of Bihar.

"We are saddened by the verdict. I am sure he will be proved innocent. He has been an old and trusted ally of the Congress," said Congress leader Digvijaya Singh.

The RJD now faces the challenge of appointing a successor who can not only keep the party afloat and united, but also convey the message to the party's voters that Lalu Prasad is still very much in charge, even from jail.

"We will fight the fodder scam verdict electorally," said Lalu's 23-year-old son Tejaswi Yadav after the verdict, indicating that he was ready to step in though many say it is too early for any of the younger Yadavs to take on a bigger role.

Among the many possibilities being floated is the return of Lalu Yadav's wife Rabri Devi, who was a reluctant entrant in politics after Lalu Yadav was forced to resign due to the fodder scam in 1997.

Many within the party are also contemplating an 11-member 'think tank'.
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