Mumbai civic polls: Stakes high with no clear favourites

Mumbai: When we say elections are big business, we mean big with a capital B. The civic elections, which are one of the most expensive civic polls conducted in the country have a lot of money riding on them, and we aren't just referring to the coffers of political parties. Mumbai-based bookies are gearing up for Rs 5,000 crore business this BMC election, set to begin on February 16.

According to the bets already made, bookies claim that while no party has emerged as a clear winner, the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) and the Republican Party of India (RPI) will play a crucial role in deciding the fate of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation.

Things don't look so good for the Shiv Sena and the Bharatiya Janta Party, given their odds on satta street. According to a Malad-based bookie, the going rate on the Shiv Sena getting 60 seats is 18 paise, while it's Rs 4.20 for them winning 80 seats. The going rate for the BJP is 28 paise for 15 seats and Rs 4.50 for 30 seats.

However, while the odds for the MNS winning 25 seats is Rs 5, bookies feel that the party will play a crucial role in these elections, as no party will get a majority of 114 seats. "No party will get a clear majority this time. No party is a favourite for us. It's looks bad for the Shiv Sena too, according to our survey," said a Borivili-based bookie.

Bookies predict that the Congress would win 75 to 80 seats, the NCP 20 to 25 seats, the Shiv Sena 70 to 75 seats, the BJP 20 to 25 seats, and the MNS, a surprising 12 to 15 seats. The MNS won three seats in the previous civic polls.  Bookies claim the RPI will win 3 to 4 seats this time too. Bookies also said that 50 per cent of people are likely to vote. Bets worth over Rs 100 crore have been placed. Last time, the Shiv Sena won 87 and the BJP won 29 seats, leading them to forge the ruling alliance.

Odds on the parties

Shiv Sena
65 seats: 47 paise
70 seats: Rs 1.10
75 seats: Rs 2.80
80 seats: Rs 4.20

BJP
15 seats: 28 paise
20 seats: 65 paise
25 seats: Rs 1.90
30 seats: Rs 4.50

MNS
10 seats: 37 paise
15 seats: Rs 1.20
20 seats: Rs 2.90
25 seats: Rs 5