Absence of Leader at Ritual Stirs North Korea Rumors

Seoul, South Korea: North Korea's leader, Kim Jong Un, who has been absent from public view for more than a month, skipped an important annual ritual Friday, a development likely to fuel further speculation about whether he has lost his grip on power.

The state news media hinted Friday that he might be ill though still in charge, lending support to one of the many theories swirling among analysts, the media and others who closely watch the nuclear-armed and notoriously opaque nation. Friday was the anniversary of the founding of the governing Worker's Party and he ordinarily would have been expected to visit the mausoleum where his grandfather - the country's founder - and his father lie in state.

The news came as tensions ticked up on the divided peninsula, as South and North Korea exchanged machine-gun fire across their heavily armed border over the release of leaflets from the South meant to convince North Koreans to turn against the Kim family's dynastic rule. South Korean activists periodically release the leaflets, which are carried north by large balloons.

The North fired first Friday, the South said, and the South returned fire toward a North Korean guard post after broadcasting a warning that it was about to start shooting.

No damage or casualties were reported after the exchange of fire. Although firing over the land border and the demilitarized zone in between the countries is not unprecedented, it has become unusual enough in recent years that South Korean television stations cut into their regular programs to report the episode as urgent news.

North Korea, a police state that tightly controls the information that reaches its people, has bristled at the dissemination of the leaflets, which are often sent by North Korean defectors who have settled in the south. The booklets usually contain Christian messages or criticize Kim and the state's network of gulags for dissenters. Kim is often depicted in the messages as a pig or called a "depraved child" for executing an uncle last year in what some analysts believe was a power struggle.

Some leaflets also include data illustrating the growing income gap between South Korea, an economic powerhouse, and the impoverished North.

The recent flurry of rumors over Kim's whereabouts were fueled in part by footage showing him limping. But because there is often political intrigue in North Korea, much of the speculation has centered on whether he lost out in a power struggle to disgruntled generals or other elites. Officials and analysts in South Korea and the United States have cast doubt on that theory, since there have been no signs of unrest or unusual troop movements in the North.

The White House said Friday that rumors of a military coup in North Korea appear to be "false," the South Korean news agency Yonhap reported.

Kim in the past has celebrated the anniversary of the Workers' Party by paying a visit to the Kumsusan mausoleum. But Friday, the North's state-run Korean Central News Agency did not list Kim among the top officials who had paid tribute at the site, one of the most sacred places in a country that is ruled with a personality cult surrounding the Kim family.

Although the North Korean news media did not call attention to Kim's absence, the country's main state-run newspaper, Rodong Sinmun, suggested that he was ill. It carried an article saying that pro-North Korean figures from abroad had sent Kim baskets of flowers for the anniversary and that ribbons attached to the flowers "wished for Marshal Kim Jong Un's good health."

Cheong Seong-chang, an analyst at the Sejong Institute research group in South Korea, said it was highly unusual for such ribbons to mention Kim's health, rather than congratulating him on the party anniversary.

"Given that the ribbons carried exactly the same message, it was clear that the message was dictated by the party," Cheong said. "Unlike his father, who used to keep his health problems secret, he is letting his people know so that he can win sympathy from them."

When the North's state-run Korean Central Television confirmed late last month that Kim was "not feeling well" and showed him limping during a visit to a factory in August, it cited that as an example of his hard-working style.

On Friday, the North Korean news agency KCNA indicated that Kim remained in control, saying that a basket of flowers sent by him had been placed before the statues of his father and his grandfather.

Analysts had cautioned that even if Kim was a no-show this year, it would not be too unusual. Kim's father often skipped a visit to the mausoleum during the party's anniversary.