Russia Casualties Near 1 Million Mark In Ukraine War: Report

Around 250,000 Russian military personnel were killed in Ukraine with over 950,000 total casualties since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in 2022, according to a new report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). The think tank now warns that total Russian casualties may cross the 1 million mark by this summer.

Despite ramping up offensives since early 2024, Russia's military progress has been sluggish at best.

The human count has been matched by catastrophic equipment losses. Russian tanks, artillery, and armoured vehicles are being lost at alarming rates, sometimes with 5:1 attrition ratios favouring Ukraine. Despite receiving arms from China, Iran, and North Korea, and increasing domestic production, Russia continues to exchange thousands of vehicles and soldiers for marginal territorial gains.

In the Kharkiv region, Russian troops have advanced at a rate of just 50 metres per day, while in Donetsk's Avdiivka-Pokrovsk sector, the figure stands at 135 metres per day, both slower than the trench warfare pace seen during World War I.

Since January 2024, Moscow has seized less than 5,000 square km of Ukrainian territory, about 1 per cent of the country. This contrasts sharply with the 120,000 square km captured in the early weeks of 2022, and Ukraine's dramatic counter-offensives that recaptured 50,000 square km later that year.

Ukraine, too, has paid a heavy price. The CSIS report estimates that 60,000 to 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed, with total casualties around 400,000. Still, Ukrainian forces have maintained a strong defensive edge, fortifying trenches, laying mines, and deploying drone warfare effectively, even striking Russian bombers deep behind enemy lines.

Russia's tactical approach has involved sending small, poorly trained infantry squads to probe Ukrainian lines. These units often serve as bait to expose Ukrainian positions, which are then targeted by artillery and drones. These tactics, however, have produced limited results and disproportionately high casualties.

Long-range strikes, including cruise missiles and FPV drones, continue to terrorise Ukrainian civilians without significantly altering the battlefield dynamics. Experts say this reflects a sharp decline from Russia's once-vaunted "deep battle" doctrine.

The CSIS warns that Russian President Vladimir Putin is playing a long game, hoping that US military aid to Ukraine will eventually dry up. The report draws parallels with past US withdrawals from Syria and Afghanistan, suggesting Moscow is banking on Western fatigue as its best chance for a breakthrough.

Yet, the report stresses that Washington still holds powerful levers. Enforcing tougher sanctions on Russian oil and gas, seizing $300 billion in frozen Russian assets, and continuing military aid without deploying American troops could critically damage Russia's war effort.

The war's outcome now hinges on whether the US chooses to fully use its economic and military advantages, or walk away, the report concludes.