Nuclear Risk Leaves Humanity With Around "35 Years", Warns Nobel Prize Winner

David Gross, winner of the Nobel Prize in Physics, recently spoke about the world's nuclear trajectory and issued a stark warning on humanity's future. During a conversation with Live Science, he said that if current trends continue, including the wars and conflicts, humanity could face an existential catastrophe within roughly 35 years.

Gross, who shared the 2004 Nobel Prize in Physics for work that helped complete the Standard Model, said he now spends "part of my time trying to tell people" the odds of long-term survival are worse than most think.

When asked whether physics would reach a unified theory of the fundamental forces within 50 years, Gross reflected on a larger point, which is whether humanity would be around to see it.

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"Currently, I spend part of my time trying to tell people... that the chances of you living 50 [more] years are very small," he said as quoted. "Due to the danger of nuclear war, you have about 35 years."

He was then asked whether or not humans will blow themselves up, "essentially, within 35 years, give or take?"

"So it's a crude estimate. Even after the Cold War ended, [when] we had strategic arms control treaties, all of which have disappeared, there were estimates that there was a 1% chance of nuclear war [every year]. Things have gotten so much worse in the last 30 years, as you can see every time you read the newspaper," he responded.

"I feel it's not a rigorous estimate, that the chances are more likely 2%. So that's a 1-in-50 chance every year. The expected lifetime, in the case of 2% [per year], is about 35 years."

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How can nations avoid nuclear war?

Mentioning the ongoing trends, he said, "People are talking about using nuclear weapons; there's a major war going on in the middle of Europe; we're bombing Iran; India and Pakistan almost went to war."

He pointed out that there have been no treaties in the last 10 years. "We're entering an incredible arms race. We have three super nuclear powers," he said.

"There are now nine nuclear powers. Even three is infinitely more complicated than two. The agreements, the norms between countries, are all falling apart. Weapons are getting crazier. Automation, and perhaps even AI, will be in control of those instruments pretty soon," he said.

He suggested that there are steps which are easy to take for nations. "For example, talk to each other," he said.