Why Iran Attacked Everyone In The Gulf But Oman

Early Saturday, most of the world woke up to news of a full-blown conflict between Israel and Iran, an address by US President Donald Trump to the ‘people of Iran' who he asked to 'take over their government', Tel Aviv striking Iran, and Tehran retaliating with strikes across the Middle East. As sirens blared in cities from Dubai to Doha, one country in the Gulf stood out as an exception. Oman, often dubbed as the 'Switzerland of the Middle East' remained largely insulated from the barrage of missiles that Iran directed at the rest of the Gulf.

A mix of history, geography, diplomacy and strategic pragmatism lie at the base of this relationship between Iran and Oman, with its roots going back to the early 1970s.

A 50-Year Relationship

During the Dhofar rebellion in Oman against Sultan Qaboos bin Said, the Shah of Iran deployed thousands of Iranian troops to help him defeat Marxist insurgents. The result was an enduring security bond between Muscat and Tehran that has stretched on for the decades since. Even after 1979, as a revolutionary Iran began being viewed with suspicion by several Gulf monarchies, Oman held on to its bond.

Iran and Oman are neighbours. Screenshot: Google Maps

This early cooperation was instrumental in creating an institutional trust between the two countries; one that survived the regime change in Iran. For both countries, this relationship is 'deep', and based on mutual respect and goodwill.

'Switzerland Of The Middle East'

Oman's neutral foreign policy is also at play here, in the current conflict between Iran and Israel. The country, while being a member of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), has had a distinctive diplomatic posture. It has historically refused to align fully with Saudi Arabia and some of its neighbours' anti-Iran stance. Muscat has mostly pursued a non-interventionist strategy, and maintains balanced relations with both Iran and Western powers. A strategy which has come in handy for Oman during times of conflict.

Oman has, time and again, acted as a quiet mediator between Iran and its adversaries. Oman hosted back-channel talks with the United States that helped pave way for the 2015 nuclear deal. Oman has continued to act as a diplomatic bridge between Iran and the US, facilitating talks between the two even in times of severe conflict, including the current one.

Attacking Oman Is A Costly Gamble

From Tehran's point of view, attacking Muscat is a costly gamble. It would risk alienating one of the very few Gulf states that keeps communication channels open even in times such as these.

Then there is the question of geography. Oman and Iran jointly overlook the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most critical oil chokepoint. In this waterway, stability is necessary for both the countries. As such, Oman and Iran have both focused on maritime security and protecting tanker routes.

Economically, it is a mutually beneficial arrangement. There are plans such as the proposed Iran-Oman gas pipeline, which aims to turn Oman into a hub for Iranian gas exports. This gives the sanctions-hit Iran an important outlet to global markets. Add to that tourism, trade and shipping links.

In a nutshell, Oman is important to Iran in ways that many other Gulf states are not.

Iran's Conflicts In The Gulf

Iran's conflicts with other players in the Gulf have mostly been through proxy groups, maritime incidents, cyber activity or political pressure, and not really open state-to-state war. In conventional warfare, Iran has never really directly 'attacked' the other Gulf states. Its conflicts with them stem from the fact that several GCC states have hosted large US military bases, supported Iran's regional rivals, backed opposing sides in conflicts such as Yemen and Syria, and aligned closely with Saudi Arabia's regional strategy.

Oman, a notable outlier and carefully neutral party in the Gulf, has avoided becoming a target in grey-zone conflicts such as these.

Oman's 'Known-To-All' Foreign Policy

Over all, there is the trust factor. Oman's 'balanced policy' and peace-oriented diplomacy have found keen praise in Iranian leaders. On its part, Muscat has kept its channels open even during peak crises.

Oman's 'known-to-all' foreign policy, at the Oman Across Ages Museum. Photo: Author

In November 2002, at the Council of Oman Annual Session, Oman's former ruler Sultan Qaboos bin Said said, "Our foreign policy is also well-known to all; we always take sides with rightness, justice, friendship and peace, and call for peaceful coexistence among nations."

For long, that has meant keeping itself strictly neutral in times of extreme global pressure. And Oman does it perfectly well.

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