Mojtaba Driven By Revenge, Would Assassinate Trump "In A Moment": Ian Bremmer

As an uneasy ceasefire between the US and Iran remains in effect, several factors could derail Saturday's talks in Islamabad, including Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei being driven by a burning desire to avenge his father's killing and overplaying his hand in the process, Ian Bremmer has said.

Speaking exclusively to NDTV's Managing Editor Shiv Aroor on Friday, Bremmer, who is the founder of the Eurasia Group and one of the world's foremost risk analysts, said Khamenei would assassinate US President Donald Trump "in a moment" if he could. 

In the wide-ranging interview, Bremmer also spoke about the likelihood of the ceasefire remaining in place, the options before Trump and whether India could have played a bigger diplomatic role, especially since Pakistan is getting credit for the pause in hostilities. 

Describing the upcoming talks in Islamabad as a positive development, the risk analyst pointed out that the Strait of Hormuz is not fully open and only seven vessels passed through it in 24 hours, that too with Iran's clearance. 

The ceasefire, he explained, could be derailed by the US' insistence on removing all of Iran's highly enriched uranium and the condition that Tehran stop supporting its proxies, like Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. 

"Then you have the question of to what extent the Iranians have full control over their own military decision-making. In the early days of the war, to avoid getting killed by Israel, there was a decentralisation to local commanders to make military decisions. That's useful for deterrence but it's more problematic if you want compliance with a ceasefire because some local commanders might decide that they don't agree," Bremmer said. 

The extent of agreement from the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), he pointed out, remains in question as well.

Bremmer also highlighted that the US is continuing to deploy troops in the Gulf even while the ceasefire is on, and a third aircraft carrier group is also headed there. 

"All of this is intended to create optionality for ground force operations in Iran and in the strait. And Trump has not taken that off the table. In fact, it won't be on the table until all of those troops arrive. So if you were cynical around all of this, you could say that the only thing Trump is trying to do is to reduce prices of oil and improve market sentiment in the interim period before his troops all arrive," he said. 

The Mojtaba Factor

Asked whether Iran could overplay its hand, Bremmer said it was a distinct possibility, especially since the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, ascended to the post only because his father, Ali Khamenei, and other members of his family were killed in US and Israeli strikes. 

"I don't think he (Khamenei) is only thinking about this in terms of overplaying his hand. I think he's incensed. I think if he knew how to assassinate President Trump, he would do so in a moment. So I think revenge is some of what is guiding him. I think exacting pain against the Americans is some of what is guiding him... The problem with what has happened in this war is that the Americans have pushed the Iranians into a corner so much that they no longer have good, rational decision-making in what they should do going forward," the analyst said. 

"Obviously, when you do that with a revolutionary regime, with a theocracy, the outcomes become a lot more dangerous," he warned. 

Israel To Show Restraint? 

On the Israel angle to the war, Bremmer said the country and its Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, will probably not play spoiler in the ceasefire efforts because the US is their main ally and gives them billions of dollars in aid. 

"For the first time in polling history, a majority of US Republicans under 50 say they do not support Israel. And, of course, a large majority of Democrats under 50 do not support Israel. So, young people in America are really misaligned with US-Israel policy. They're misaligned with Trump's decision to go into this war with the strong support and advice of the Israeli prime minister," he said. 

"They believe that this is an Israel-first war, but not an America-first war. And that is a fight that is dangerous for Trump and for the MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement," he flagged. 

India, Pakistan And Diplomacy

To a question on what's at stake for India in the talks, the analyst said the country has been buying oil from the Middle East with no blowback from the US. 

Addressing the issue of Pakistan playing the role of mediator, Bremmer said it could do so not only because of its relationship with Trump, but also because of its security ties with China and Saudi Arabia. 

The mediation, he emphasised, does not change the country's standing vis-a-vis India. 

"I don't think there was a big role, a big opportunity for the Indians to take here. But of course, the fact that Pakistan is having a moment in the sun in facilitating and hosting these talks does not change the fact that Pakistan's military is incapable compared to that of India. And we saw that in the last border skirmishing and open fighting between the two countries," he stressed. 

"... the fact that India is becoming a world-class developer of technology and AI, and Pakistan is nowhere on that front. India is closing in on 1.5 billion people and acting as a bridge between the G7 and a leader of the Global South, while Pakistan has none of that capability. So I don't think we should lose sight of the broader context, where India is becoming a world leader in an increasingly multipolar economic environment. Pakistan is not remotely close to that. It's a rounding error," he added.