Donald Trump has maintained innocence and said he is the presidential contest
Former US President Donald Trump was indicted for a third time on Tuesday and is now facing 78 criminal counts. The latest indictment was for Trump's efforts to overturn the elections in 2020 after losing the presidential race to Joe Biden. If he were to be convicted for each count, the businessman-turned-politician could, in theory, face hundreds of years of imprisonment. While plausible, such long sentencing is deemed highly unlikely.
It marks an unprecedented moment in the history of world politics with a former US president, currently seeking to reclaim the White House, facing charges related to efforts to exploit the levers of government authority in order to undermine democracy.
Mr Trump, on his part, has maintained his innocence and consistently stated that he would be a part of the presidential race in 2024. Following his second indictment in June this year, the billionaire rejected the idea of withdrawing from the Republican Party's primary competition. Instead, he has accused his political rivals of using corrupt means to interfere with the election.
What does it mean for the 2024 elections?
Both federal and state prosecutors in New York are actively pursuing cases against Trump, aiming to bring him to justice before the country heads to the polls in 17 months. While it is possible that the long list of criminal counts and indictments can negatively impact his presidential campaign, there is no denying that there is a large section of the Republican voter base that is loyal to the politician despite the charges against him.
According to report by BBC in June this year, Trump “nearly doubled his lead in his party's race for the 2024 nomination, according to an aggregation of national polls of Republican voters by the website FiveThirtyEight.”
Matt Shoemaker, a national security analyst and former intelligence officer, in an interview with AFP, said, "It probably won't sway undecided voters, but it will energise Trump supporters who may be uncertain or considering a candidate with fewer controversies”, given that Trump continued to surge ahead in Republican polls after the second indictment.
While Trump's Republican rivals have backed him up so far, the indictments and legal problems are bound to be significant roadblocks in the presidential campaign.
Moreover, the charges that involve conspiracy to obstruct justice and mishandling sensitive national security documents violate the federal Espionage Act. Individuals found guilty of similar offences have been prosecuted and sentenced to imprisonment. Mr Trump being found guilty of jeopardising national security through his conduct could carry significant weight in both the legal proceedings and the court of public opinion. This, in turn, could affect his dreams of returning to the White House for a second time.
If Trump were to be re-elected, there is a possibility that he could potentially obstruct any ongoing federal prosecutions by attempting to pardon himself. This, a scenario without precedent, could lead to a significant constitutional crisis.