Opinion | The Cost of 'Boasting': Trump And India's Post-Op Sindoor Dilemmas

Diplomacy usually progresses through carefully chosen words and strategic pauses. Decisions are made away from cameras, the language is calibrated, and every phrase is weighed before being made public. United States President Donald Trump shattered that quiet when he claimed that he had averted a war between India and Pakistan in May by threatening trade penalties. Subtlety gave way to showmanship. The applause line may suit a rally, but it forces New Delhi and Islamabad to recalibrate their strategic calculations.

From Pahalgam To A Pause

To recapitulate, the immediate backdrop was grim. On April 22, a terror attack near Pahalgam in Jammu and Kashmir reignited tensions. Between May 7 to 10, India and Pakistan carried out air strikes, and both armies were on high alert. A ceasefire followed on May 10, after four days of conflict. Trump promptly credited himself, claiming that his promise of American market access brought the nuclear neighbours back from the brink. This is a claim he has repeated on numerous occasions, whether true or not.

This episode is also cited in a filing by the US government with the Court of International Trade to argue that presidential tariff powers advance national security. In this telling, trade rather than diplomacy was the key to de-escalation. 

Sometimes, it is not the conflict that changes everything. It is the story told about how it ended. This is one such case.

Strategic Autonomy in Question

For India, the claim cuts deep. Since independence, India has pursued strategic autonomy by engaging major powers while reserving final decisions for itself. Trump's assertions, whether correct or not, imply that India's military choices can be reshaped by economic threats, a suggestion that strikes at the heart of Indian foreign policy.

Worse, it crosses a red line. India has always rejected third-party mediation on Kashmir. By describing India and Pakistan as equal parties in a bilateral dispute, Trump blurred the crucial difference between a democracy responding to cross-border terrorism and a military-led neighbour country accused of enabling it.

Accepting Trump's narrative also risks encouraging future economic coercion and weakening India's hand in any balanced partnership.

New Delhi's official position is unambiguous. Indian leaders say the ceasefire resulted from direct military channels with Islamabad, no outside mediation and no economic inducement. The Congress and other opposition parties have criticised the Modi government for diplomatic surrender. In the media, critics have argued that silence implies complicity, and this has dented India's global stature.

This controversy adds to the challenges of achieving the ambitious goals of boosting bilateral trade to $500 million by 2030, clinching an “early harvest” by autumn 2025, and working on a first-phase pact that tackles tariff irritants, set by Modi and Trump at their meeting on February 13 this year.

Hedging Through Diversification

India's partnership with the United States is multi-faceted. Still, any perception that this partnership compromises strategic autonomy is disconcerting. New Delhi is, therefore, hedging. It is accelerating trade talks with the European Union, enhancing defence cooperation with France, and re-examining long-standing ties with Russia. Even ties with Beijing are increasing. Diversification, once discussed in theory, is now visible in policy.

Pakistan's Calculated Embrace

Islamabad, in contrast, has amplified Trump's claim. After years of friction with Washington, the idea that charm and commerce can solve security dilemmas is appealing. Trump hosted Pakistan's army chief for lunch at the White House and spoke warmly of future cooperation, prompting Islamabad to suggest Trump's name for a Nobel Peace Prize nomination in recognition of his role in the ceasefire.

Yet, that enthusiasm masks fragility. External praise is no substitute for structural reform at home. Without economic and governance improvements, Pakistan will remain dependent on outside validation.

Trade As A Tactic

Trump's boast highlights a broader trend. Market access is becoming a tool of influence in the United States' foreign policy. While trade and national security linkages are not new, if tariffs are deployed as emergency levers in geopolitical crises, and trade can be revoked or granted based on security behaviour, then market access becomes a weapon and not a tool of mutual prosperity. Partners will question whether any trade agreement will outlast differences in other areas. Trust lost in this way is hard to regain.

Steadying the India-US Partnership

The India-US relationship rests on issues beyond trade. It also includes converging interests in the Indo-Pacific and shared democratic values. To steady the partnership, the US will need to balance the ‘Art of the Deal' with the art of traditional diplomacy, and quietly but emphatically confirm that the May 10 ceasefire was India's sovereign decision.

For its part, notwithstanding that Trump's remarks make for harder bargaining and a more fraught negotiating environment, India needs to frame the initial trade understanding that it seeks to arrive at with the US before July 9 as a matter of national interest. It will have to beat scepticism to arrive at the first substantive India-US trade deal in decades, and get a waiver of the ‘liberation day' tariffs. Only then can it address other ambitious bilateral trade goals.

A Call For Quiet Diplomacy

Moments like this call for restraint. Statesmanship is measured not by the volume of applause, but by the discipline that follows. What the moment demands is composure, not spectacle, assurance, not drama. Quiet diplomacy is needed more than ever, so that the India-United States partnership emerges stronger after the storm.

(The writer is a former Permanent Representative of India to the United Nations, and dean, Kautilya School Of Public Policy, Hyderabad)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author