How China's 'Risky, Dangerous' Brahmaputra Mega Dam Could Impact India

China is building one of its largest and most contentious infrastructure projects to date, a vast hydropower system on the Yarlung Tsangpo river that could have far-reaching consequences for India and neighbouring countries, particularly for communities and ecosystems along the Brahmaputra basin.

The Yarlung Tsangpo flows out of Tibet and enters India as the Brahmaputra, a lifeline for millions who depend on it for farming, fishing and daily water needs, before it continues into Bangladesh. According to CNN, experts warn that large-scale intervention upstream could alter the river's natural rhythms in ways that are still understudied.

According to the report, the $168-billion project will exploit a dramatic 2,000-metre drop in altitude to generate hydropower. While the system is being promoted by Beijing as a climate-friendly source of clean energy, specialists caution that it could also disrupt ancestral homes of indigenous residents and unbalance the ecosystem.

The project is expected to be technically complex, involving a network of dams, reservoirs and underground power stations linked by tunnels. Brian Eyler, director of the Energy, Water and Sustainability Program at the Stimson Center in Washington, described it as the "most sophisticated the planet has ever seen," adding, "It's also the riskiest and potentially the most dangerous."

China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has pushed back against such concerns, saying the hydropower plan has undergone "decades of in-depth research" and that authorities have "implemented thorough measures for engineering safety and ecological protection to ensure it will not adversely affect downstream areas." 

For India, however, the stakes are high. Any manipulation of water flow on the upper reaches of the Brahmaputra could affect sediment movement, fish migration and seasonal flooding patterns, all of which are crucial for agriculture and biodiversity downstream. Although the Brahmaputra receives much of its water from monsoon rains and tributaries within India, experts say even upstream alterations could disturb the river's natural pulse.

Beyond environmental concerns, the dam also carries geopolitical weight. "If you connect the dots of Chinese infrastructure development in the Himalayas, especially in areas where China borders India along Tibet, they are strategically placed," said Rishi Gupta, assistant director at the Asia Society Policy Institute in New Delhi. He added, "The project aligns with China's broader goal of leveraging its natural resources to consolidate control over critical regions like Tibet and its borders."

The Yarlung Tsangpo region itself is ecologically sensitive, flanked by national-level nature reserves and home to endangered species including Bengal tigers, clouded leopards, black bears and red pandas. Scientists and rights groups have long expressed scepticism about large infrastructure projects in such fragile terrain.

The human cost is another unresolved issue. Tens of thousands of people live in the counties where the hydropower system will be built, including indigenous communities such as the Monpa and Lhoba, among China's smallest officially recognised ethnic minorities. Chinese officials have acknowledged that the project will involve "relocating local communities" in Tibet.

"People could face forced displacement from their ancestral homes... destruction to the source of local income, destruction of local ecological balance and wildlife habitat, influx of migrant workers from China replacing the local population in the region," said Tempa Gyaltsen Zamlha, deputy director of the Tibet Policy Institute in Dharamsala.

A top official from Arunachal Pradesh warned in July that the project posed an existential threat to the region and could be weaponised as a "water bomb".

"China cannot be trusted. No one knows what they will do and when," Khandu told the Press Trust of India, warning that the release or withholding of water could either flood or dry out vast stretches of the state.

India has said it is "carefully monitoring" China's plans. Officials in New Delhi have also pledged "necessary measures to protect our interests, including preventive and corrective measures to safeguard life and livelihood of Indian citizens."

China's handling of the Mekong River, another transnational waterway, has further deepened suspicion. Operators of the Chinese dams on the Mekong have been accused of contributing to drought conditions in downstream countries such as Vietnam by controlling water flow to maximise power generation, a charge Beijing denies.

The uncertainty surrounding China's project is already reshaping decisions in India. The officials from India's largest state-backed hydropower company are pushing ahead with their own proposed 11,200-megawatt dam on the Brahmaputra, partly driven by concerns over upstream developments.

With both countries advancing massive projects on the same river system, experts warn of a dangerous escalation. Eyler argues that cooperation could reduce risks. "If the two countries could work together on the overall design of the mega-dam system, then some risk could be avoided," he said. Otherwise, he cautioned, "A dam-building race between India and China is a race to the bottom."