How A Trader Bet On Maduro's Downfall And Made A Profit Of 3.93 Crores

US President Donald Trump took the world by surprise on Monday when he announced that American forces struck the Venezuelan capital, Caracas, and captured his counterpart, Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. It came as a bolt from the blue, for Maduro, a day before the raid carried out by a special US task force, was seen driving through the streets of the capital and showed no signs of fear or despair.

Turns out that someone in the prediction market had an inkling that he'd fall. A new account on the Polymarket placed over $30,000, approximately Rs 27 lakh, on the Venezuelan President's ouster and made a mammoth profit of nearly $400,000, roughly Rs 3.93 crore, Axios reported.

The bet was tied to Maduro's fall or exit by January 31, 2026. The winning account was opened somewhere in December 2025, according to a Facebook post by Stock Sharks.

In the last few weeks, there were few takers on whether Maduro would remain in power until Friday, with the market hovering in single digits, the Wall Street Journal reported.

What's a Prediction Market

It's a platform where people predict and bet on the outcome of a future event. The traders or account holders buy and sell shares in the outcomes after collectively forecasting results for sports, elections and/or entertainment awards.

How US Captured Maduro And His Wife

A special US task force raided Nicolas Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores' high-security residence in Caracas early Saturday (local time). The Venezuelan leader and his partner were reportedly sleeping when they were captured in a pre-dawn raid at Ft Tiuna military compound.

Maduro and his wife were immediately flown out of the country, US President Donald Trump announced. The first visuals of Maduro on board the US warplane showed him blindfolded and holding a water bottle. Hours later, a video in which the 63-year-old leader, handcuffed and in a black hooded sweatshirt, was seen walking down a hallway with a blue carpet labelled "DEA NYD". He was also heard saying "good night" and "Happy New Year" to the officials in the room.