Explainer: How War And Sanctions Decimated Syria's Economy

US President Donald Trump has said he will lift long-standing sanctions on Syria that severed the country from the global financial system under toppled former President Bashar al-Assad. 

The European Union and Britain have already lifted some of their sanctions, but if Washington now goes ahead with a wholesale removal, it will pave the way for others to follow.

Below is a round-up of the current state of Syria's economy and how 14 years of civil war, ending with Assad's fall in December, reshaped trade and government finances.

How Is The Economy Doing?

The World Bank estimates Syria's economy is worth around $21 billion - that is roughly on par with Albania and Armenia, which both have more than 20 million fewer inhabitants than Syria.

Official Syrian data shows the economy more than halved in size between 2010 and 2022. The World Bank believes even that is likely to be an underestimate, given that nighttime light emissions - a proxy for overall economic activity - indicated an even sharper 83% contraction between 2010 and 2024.

Syria was reclassified as a low-income country in 2018, with more than 90% of its near 25 million population living below the poverty line, according to UN agencies.

Currency Impact

Syria's economic turmoil worsened in 2019 when neighbouring Lebanon, with which it has extensive economic and financial ties, also descended into crisis. Damascus then introduced a plethora of exchange rates for different transactions to safeguard scarce hard currency. 

Following the new government's takeover in December, the central bank pledged to adopt an official unified exchange rate for the Syrian pound. 

It also appointed Maysaa Sabrine as central bank governor - making her the first woman to head the bank in its more than 70-year history.    

On Wednesday, the exchange rate was at 11,065 pounds to the dollar. That compares to black market rates of around 22,000 around the time of Assad's fall last year and just 47 to the dollar in March 2011 when civil war engulfed the country. 

Debt

The government has stated it owes between $20 billion and $23 billion, mostly in bilateral loans, although it could be considerably higher, given it may face claims from Iran and Russia for between $30 billion to $50 billion.

Leading sovereign debt lawyers say those Assad-era obligations could be struck off as "odious" war debt — debt incurred without the consent of the Syrian people or for their benefit, given much of it went to funding arms for the Assad government.

The composition of Syrian obligors - such as the government, central bank, state-owned enterprises, or commercial organisations - also needs to be pinned down, a recent Peterson Institute report adds, as different types of debt may need to be treated differently when restructured.

Central Bank Reserves

The central bank only has foreign exchange reserves of around $200 million in cash, sources previously told Reuters, a huge drop from the $18.5 billion that the International Monetary Fund estimated Syria had before its civil war erupted.

It also holds nearly 26 tonnes of gold, worth over $2.6 billion at current market prices. 

The new government has said it expects to retrieve up to $400 million of its frozen assets to help fund reforms, including recent sharp increases in some public sector salaries.

Western governments froze the assets during Assad's rule, but the exact value and location of them now, and how quickly they could be repatriated, remains unclear. 

Switzerland has said some 99 million Swiss francs ($118 million) worth are currently in banks there. The Syria Report newsletter also estimates that 163 million pounds worth ($217 million) are in the UK. 

Illicit Cash

Dwindling oil and tourism revenues decimated Syria's exports from $18.4 billion in 2010 to $1.8 billion in 2021, according to the World Bank.

The pressured government finances prompted it to pay for some key imports with illicit cash from sales of an addictive amphetamine-like stimulant commonly known as captagon, or from fuel smuggling, experts say. 

Captagon production became the most valuable economic sector, with World Bank last year putting the total market value of the drug originating from Syria as high as $5.6 billion.   

Energy Challenges

In 2010, Syria exported 380,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil. This source of revenue all but evaporated after the civil war began in 2011. Various factions - including the Islamic State and Kurdish fighters - seized oilfields. While the latter signed deals with U.S. companies, sanctions made other legitimate exports difficult. 

The loss left Syria reliant on energy imports - mostly from allies Russia and Iran. Rachel Ziemba, senior adviser on sanctions with risk consultancy Horizon Engage, said the roughly 1-3 million barrels of fuel per month Syria had been getting from Iran stopped in late December as Tehran pulled back.

Agriculture

Conflict and drought reduced the number of farmers, damaged irrigation and cut access to seeds and fertilisers. 

Agricultural production sank to record lows in 2021 and 2022, with wheat alone falling to a quarter of the around four million tonnes per year pre-war.

Syria imported around one million tonnes of cereal annually from Russia. Flows paused when the government changed, but resumed last month. Ukraine has also signalled its willingness to supply wheat, but it is unclear how Syria could pay.  

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)