As the dust settles over bombed-out Iranian nuclear sites and ceasefire agreements fray at the edges, Washington and Tel Aviv are left to confront a sobering reality. Even after precision strikes and months of planning, Iran's nuclear ambitions may not be dismantled, only delayed and driven further into the shadows.
Forty-eight hours after US President Donald Trump ordered strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, he announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. But even as he spoke, missiles were being exchanged, and both sides accused each other of breaking the truce. Earlier that day, Iran fired missiles at a US airbase in Qatar after advance warning and caused no casualties.
In an off-the-cuff moment, Trump told reporters Tuesday morning, "We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don't know what the f**k they're doing."
What has been visibly achieved appears to be significant. A series of surgical strikes have damaged uranium enrichment and weaponisation infrastructure. "Some of the uranium metal facilities have been destroyed," said Nicole Grajewski, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, as per The New Yorker. "That's actually a pretty good stopgap for some of the weaponisation work."
Yet these gains are, at best, partial and temporary.
Nicole Grajewski says Iran's uranium stockpile is unaccounted for, and key centrifuge parts haven't been inspected since 2021, keeping fears of a hidden nuclear programme alive.
Iran has also shown its resistance to targeted assassinations. After Israeli strikes killed top nuclear scientists, Tehran responded by building a "robust community" of nuclear experts.
The threat, therefore, has not been eradicated. It has merely been driven deeper underground.
The ceasefire remains tenuous. "In the short term, I think my primary concern is accidental escalation," says Grajewski. Whether from Iranian proxies in Iraq or errant Israeli retaliation, the potential for another spiral into open conflict remains high.
In the longer term, the conflict is more paused than resolved. "This ceasefire is not going to eradicate years of shadow war," Grajewski adds. The fundamental issues, chief among them Iran's pursuit of nuclear capability, remain unresolved.
Iran's internal political climate is also complicating matters. As the conflict erupted, Iran's parliament was advancing a bill to suspend cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). If passed, this would further curtail global oversight of Iran's nuclear ambitions and set the stage for even greater opacity.
Iran's regime, deeply bureaucratised and factionalised, is now attempting to project stability both to its domestic population and the international community. At home, the leadership aims to maintain its grip by invoking strength and sovereignty. Abroad, the missile strike on Qatar, telegraphed in advance, functioned more as a signal than an attack.
Still, Tehran's fear of regime change is palpable, even though Trump said he "didn't want" one.
Israel's strikes hit not just nuclear sites, but also parts of Iran's internal security forces, like the Basij militia. This suggests a clear attempt to weaken the regime's tools of control. If the conflict drags on, it could put serious pressure on Iran's government and threaten its hold on power.
"One problem with the discussion of Iranian regime change in the United States," warns Grajewski, "is that it's a goal within itself, but there is nothing with what happens after." Drawing on the chaos that followed American invasion of Iraq, she warned that any vacuum left behind in Iran could invite even harsher repression.
Iran's strategy of supporting groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon and backing Syria's Bashar al-Assad is starting to weaken. This approach, known as "forward defence", was meant to give Iran power across the region by relying on loyal allies. Now, those efforts are bringing fewer results.
With Hezbollah weakened and Syria unstable, Iran has fewer ways to strike back. At the same time, more Iranians, especially reform-minded leaders, are asking why the government keeps spending on wars abroad while the economy and public services at home continue to fall apart.
In the end, the US-Israel campaign has managed to contain, not defeat, Iran. Nuclear sites were hit. Military leadership was shaken. But Iran's regime, and its nuclear ambition, remain intact.
