Trump's Iran War Conundrum, Shifting Stance And What's Next

It seemed just weeks ago that the possibility of war between the United States and Iran could be averted. An uneasy ceasefire, under which a memorandum of understanding (MoU) came into effect, had led to a chance for diplomacy following months of hostilities. However, all hopes of that now seem to have been washed away. 

New attacks on vessels in the Gulf, more US air strikes, and increased threats from US President Donald Trump have brought about a situation where both sides are heading towards confrontation again. It is not due to a one-off occurrence but rather to the collapse of a diplomatic process doomed from the very beginning.

The ceasefire calmed down the hostilities that began on February 28 but did nothing to solve the major issues that Washington and Tehran have with each other.

The deep distrust between the two countries, the Iranian nuclear programme, sanctions, and the issue of security in the Strait of Hormuz were not solved at all.

Timeline Of Deal Collapse

June 24-25 | Phase 1: Optimism

Trump hailed the Israel-Iran ceasefire as a diplomatic win, saying his "maximum pressure" campaign had brought Tehran back to talks. He expressed confidence the truce would hold.

Late June-Early July | Phase 2: Warning Iran

As talks slowed, Trump warned Iran against delaying negotiations, saying "all options" remained on the table while insisting diplomacy was still possible.

July 8-9 | Phase 3: Ceasefire Over

Following attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, Trump declared the ceasefire effectively over. The US launched fresh strikes on Iranian military targets.

July 9 Onwards | Phase 4: Talks Still Possible

Despite the strikes, Trump said Iran could still return to negotiations with a "serious" proposal, signalling Washington was keeping the diplomatic door open while maintaining military pressure.

How Ceasefire Came Together

This diplomatic achievement came after weeks of fierce military interaction between the two parties that put the entire Middle East on the verge of a broader war. After mediation by regional players, the two parties reached an agreement about an interim ceasefire to end direct military actions and facilitate negotiations. 

This agreement was not regarded as any sort of permanent peace accord between the parties. This was only an attempt at building trust among both sides, while they negotiate some tougher issues like curbing Iran's nuclear programs, sanction reduction, Gulf of Arabia security, and means of averting any military mishaps. 

The ceasefire announcement helped restore calm in international markets. The price of oil dropped because people were expecting that the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of international oil trade flows, would stay safe and sound.

Why US-Iran Deal Began To Crack

In spite of all the diplomatic efforts, both parties still did not trust each other. According to the US officials, Iran used the ceasefire to strengthen its infrastructure and increase the number of missiles and drones. 

Iran maintained that the United States was pursuing its own aggressive policy by imposing sanctions on it, conducting espionage activities against it, and reinforcing its navy in the Gulf region, thus breaking the deal. 

The collapse of the deal was a gradual process, with many small incidents being reported daily. While the negotiations were ongoing, the political situation, which had originally encouraged the peace talks, steadily deteriorated.

Ship Attacks Changed Equation

The key event was the attack on the commercial ships travelling close to the Strait of Hormuz. One such ship that was allegedly attacked was a Qatari LNG tanker. The attack sparked panic in the global energy market regarding the security of this strategically significant waterway. 

Several shipping firms either postponed trips or altered the course of ships due to worries of more attacks. In the case of the US, the attacks on the commercial ships amounted to crossing the line for them. 

The Americans were of the view that freedom of navigation needed to be secured, while the attacks were orchestrated by Iran and its proxies to disrupt one of the world's busiest energy corridors.

The reaction from the US side was immediate. American forces conducted one of the largest waves of strikes against missile launch facilities, drone bases, coastal radar networks, naval vessels, and logistics centres associated with Iran's capabilities since the beginning of the ceasefire. 

According to Washington, the purpose of this military activity was the protection of international trade routes and prevention of further terrorist attacks. Iran responded with a wave of missile and drone strikes against US bases located in the Persian Gulf region, namely, in Bahrain and Kuwait. 

Such development drastically raised the likelihood of further escalation, thus practically putting an end to the ceasefire process.

Trump's Shifting Stand

The statements of Donald Trump throughout the entire crisis period reflect the ambivalence of the US strategy regarding the resolution of the situation. Initially, after announcing the ceasefire, Trump emphasised that the US policy of maximum pressure managed to force Iran to negotiate again. 

At this point, Trump assured everyone that there was some progress made and suggested that the parties were close to reaching an agreement. As time went by and the process of negotiations was delayed, his rhetoric became more aggressive. In particular, Trump stated that Iran was trying to test America's patience and threatened that military actions could become a part of US policy towards Iran in case Tehran violated its obligations. 

After the attacks on commercial shipping, Trump declared the ceasefire process to be effectively over and authorised additional military strikes. However, despite all these actions, Trump did not fully close the door to diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis. Trump just stated that the US would still conduct negotiations in case of Iran's readiness to make a deal.

The Collapse Was Predictable

Experts had long predicted that without a complete political solution, the ceasefire could only postpone the problem.

Many pundits said that the ceasefire agreement between the two parties could never last since it was solving the symptoms and not the core problem.

Ali Vaez, who works for the International Crisis Group in the Iran Project Director's position, said that he always believed that no temporary truce agreement can be successful without a political deal being made beforehand.

He said the truces pause the fighting and "nothing more".

Gregory Brew, a senior Middle East analyst at Eurasia Group, said that now maritime safety has become the main cause of tension in the relationship between the US and Iran.

He said that the attacks on the ships have turned economic infrastructure into the trigger for direct military conflicts, which means that the situation will only worsen in the future.

Diplomats, who were following the negotiations, said that Washington and Tehran did not view this ceasefire as a step towards peace but as an additional chance to increase their negotiating position in the future.

What Comes Next

Even with the new military attack, the diplomatic door is still open since Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey continue to push both parties to negotiate before the conflict escalates. However, with such a low level of trust at the moment, chances of renewing the ceasefire seem very slim.

For now, the path is quite obvious: diplomatic attempts to resolve the conflict ended with military actions. If the two parties do not manage to solve their problems with sanctions, Iran's nuclear program, and maritime security, the current ceasefire will also prove to be short-lived.