Nuclear Blackmail? China Could Use Moscow's Playbook In Taiwan Conflict

China's swift growth and diversification of its nuclear capabilities have led to concerns that Beijing might engage in "nuclear blackmail" or even nuclear conflict with Western countries if they intervene in a Taiwan dispute, reminiscent of the warnings from the Kremlin during its incursion into Ukraine, as reported by Central News Agency (CNA).

During the military parade on September 3 in Tiananmen Square, China showcased three missiles capable of carrying nuclear payloads: the JL-1 air-launched ballistic missile, the JL-3 submarine-launched intercontinental missile, and the DF-61 surface-to-surface intercontinental missile.

This threatening exhibition of what analysts characterise as a potential Chinese "nuclear triad", the capacity to launch nuclear weapons via air, land, and sea, has heightened alarms among democratic nations. Previously, China did not possess the capability to conduct airborne nuclear strikes, according to CNA's report.

Eric Heginbotham, a key research scientist at MIT's Security Studies Program, stated that China's advanced tactical nuclear arms, such as the DF-26, offer a "more credible" deterrence compared to its strategic weapons, which Washington might perceive as actually usable by Beijing in retaliation for a US tactical nuclear strike.

"This not only reduces US escalation dominance in overall capabilities but also equips [China] with more realistic options to respond proportionately against potential US use of tactical nuclear arms," Heginbotham noted, as cited by the CNA report.

Previously, China's solely strategic retaliatory options implied that any nuclear response to the US would equate to a "suicidal" act, given it would provoke a devastating US counterattack, resulting in massive casualties.

"All of this enhances China's capacity to engage in conventional warfare 'safely', with diminished fear of a US nuclear retaliation towards Taiwan," Heginbotham remarked.

Yang Tai-yuan, the chairman of the Secure Taiwan Associate Corporation, cautioned that these advancements could render the US less inclined to deploy forces in defence of Taiwan if a Chinese invasion occurs.

"The Chinese Communist Party may have drawn lessons on nuclear intimidation from Russia during the Ukraine conflict and could threaten to deploy tactical nuclear weapons against major powers that get involved in its regional disputes, including those in the Taiwan Strait," Yang indicated, as referenced by the CNA report.

If the US were to dispatch troops to support Taiwan, China might utilise its tactical nuclear arsenal to intimidate American forces present in the western Pacific, he mentioned.

"The US would probably take such threats seriously and assess its choices between deploying troops to the Taiwan Strait or limiting its reaction to diplomatic actions, such as showing support via the United Nations, to prevent direct conflict," he added, according to the CNA report.

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