China In "Opportunistic" Move, Pounces On Cheap Russian Oil, As Indian Demand Dips

Chinese refineries have ramped up their crude oil purchases from Russia as demand from India has weakened. US President Donald Trump has threatened to impose secondary tariffs on goods from countries importing Russian oil in a bid to pressure Moscow to end the war in Ukraine.

Muyu Xu, senior crude oil analyst at Kpler, which tracks commodities and shipping data, said that China's buying shows an "opportunistic" side, as the price of Russian oil is at least $3 per barrel cheaper than oil from the Middle East.

Indian state refiners paused Russian oil purchases last month, per a Reuters report. They have backed out Russian crude imports by approximately 600,000 to 700,000 bpd, according to Energy Aspects' Jones.

"As for whether China will continue buying, I personally believe that right now is still a very good opportunity, because over in India, Trump is still pressing hard on them," she said, per a report by CNN.

"Taking advantage of this opportunity while prices are low, I think more refineries will probably consider buying more, within a week or two," Xu said.

China has purchased 15 cargoes of Russian crude for delivery in October and November, according to Reuters.

Since Russia became a pariah after some Western nations shunned purchases and imposed restrictions on Russian exports over Moscow's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, India has emerged as the leading buyer of Russia's discounted seaborne oil.

Trump has said that although he is not planning immediate retaliatory tariffs on China for purchasing Russian oil, he may consider the same "in two weeks or three weeks".

However, Xu said despite China purchasing about 1.2 million barrels of seaborne Russian oil per day, it cannot make up for India's shortfall, as the latter buys around 1.7 million barrels per day from Russia.

"If India keeps holding off on buying, that's going to be a real problem for Russia - China just can't take on all of India's volume by itself," she said.