El Nino is firmly established and is expected to intensify into a very strong event in the coming months, bringing significant changes in rainfall and temperature patterns and increasing the associated risks of floods, drought and extreme heat, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said.
WMO forecasts indicate an "exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100%" that El Nino will persist through February 2027. The organisation said this is the first time its El Nino/La Nina Update has been so unequivocal, reflecting strong agreement among its global network.
Fuelled by exceptionally warm ocean conditions across the tropical Pacific, El Nino is expected to strengthen further, reaching very strong intensity before peaking towards the end of 2026. Its climate impacts are expected to continue well into 2027.
"El Nino is being supersized before our eyes," UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said, warning that rising sea surface temperatures and temperatures globally are putting the world in a "danger zone" of extreme weather.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the phenomenon could deliver "a massive blow" to communities and economies worldwide, with droughts and floods already causing disruption and devastation.
Exceptional Pacific Ocean Heat
Sea surface temperatures across the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, the region at the heart of El Nino, are already well above average and continue to rise.
The Nino 3.4 index, which measures sea surface temperature anomalies in the region, averaged 1.5 degrees Celsius above normal during May-July 2026 and reached 2.0 degrees Celsius above normal in July.
Weekly values rose further between late July and mid-August, ranging from approximately 2.2 degrees Celsius to 2.6 degrees Celsius above average.
Even more exceptional warmth was recorded below the ocean surface, with subsurface temperatures in some areas more than 8 degrees Celsius above average during July and early August.
WMO said the surface and subsurface conditions provide strong support for continued El Nino conditions and the possibility of further strengthening.
Impacts Will Vary By Region
A very strong El Nino increases the likelihood of major changes in rainfall, temperatures and atmospheric circulation across many parts of the world. However, the strength of the event alone does not determine how severe its impacts will be in a particular country or region.
Its effects vary by location and season and can be modified by other climate drivers, including conditions in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans.
For September-November 2026, WMO forecasts indicate an increased likelihood of above-normal temperatures across almost all land areas, alongside rainfall patterns showing a pronounced atmospheric response to the strong Pacific El Nino.
A positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole is also expected to develop, reaching a seasonal mean value of 0.9 degrees Celsius during September-October-November 2026.
WMO said governments, humanitarian agencies, businesses and communities have valuable time to prepare because El Nino can reshape weather and climate patterns thousands of kilometres from the tropical Pacific.
El Nino is a natural climate phenomenon, but human-caused climate change can make its impacts much worse. It typically occurs every two to seven years, lasting around nine to 12 months.
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