Yesterday, August 6, after days of deficits and shortages, a convoy of about 40 aid lorries entered Sweida, Syria's embattled southern province, thanks to the reopening of a humanitarian corridor to the region. The aid notwithstanding, the violence that has raged on in fits and starts there since April, and which flared up in July, is another low for the new regime of President Ahmed al-Sharaa in Syria. Within seven months of his governance, Syria saw the second massacre of minorities, and possibly the beginning of a new proxy war in the region.
The massacre of the Druze minority by Islamist and government forces provided Israel with an excuse to again start bombing Damascus. This time, Israel may have the overt consent of many countries, both in the region and beyond.
What is the cause of this round of violence in the ever-restive region? The immediate reason has been the protection of the Druze community in Southern Syria, in areas bordering Israel, and along the zone that Israel occupied more recently inside Syria as the regime of former president Bashar Al Assad was being toppled in December last year.
But who are the Druze, and why is Israel concerned about the Druze in Syria, the citizens of a country that has been its arch-enemy throughout its modern history?
The Druze are an ancient pre-Islamic Arab community, who are followers of Jethro, the father-in-law of the Jewish Prophet Moses. Like most ancient communities in the Middle East, reincarnation is central to their religious belief. In fact, so intense is this belief that in the event of any death, a family immediately waits for a birth to occur, signifying the return of the soul to the family it knew. It would then seem that the belief in reincarnation connects the Druze in a way to India and Indic beliefs. But, there is more. According to some Druze tradition, the community has a number of scriptures, some of which are lost. According to that tradition, it's believed that the day these lost scriptures are found and all the Druze holy books come together, it would be the time that would herald the Judgement Day. Many Druze believe that these lost books are to be found in India.
Strangely, though, most Druze are not very knowledgeable about their religion. The lay people are denied esoteric knowledge, which is strictly restricted to the clergy. This practice, it is said, was adopted to preserve the Druze religion and to prevent its dilution with other newer traditions. The Druze do not believe in conversions; one has to be born a Druze to be one. The community does not claim any temporal power. They owe their allegiance to whichever state they are citizens of. As such, the Druze are mainly to be found in Syria, Lebanon, and Israel.
The Druze are concentrated in southern Syria, in the Golan Heights, which Israel conquered during the 1967 Arab-Israel war and which is claimed by Syria as well as northern Israel. In Israel, members of the Druze community have reached high positions in government (a number of Israeli diplomats who have served in India have been Druze). Though part of the Arabic-speaking population in Israel, the Druze are not involved in the Palestinian movement, seeing themselves as separate from Palestinians.
In Syria, the Druze community was one of the pillars of support for the minority Alawite-dominated government. After the fall of the Assad government in December, its new ruler, Ahmed Al Shara (formerly Golani), has presided over two major massacres.
Starting on March 6 and over several following days, Syria saw wide sectarian bloodshed largely in the Alawite coastal heartland. The Alawites, often regarded as heretics by Sunni Muslims, are the community that Assad belongs to; many had even feared a reprisal after he was overthrown. They are mostly concentrated in the coastal regions of the Latakia province.
The violence sent more than 21,000 fleeing to neighbouring Lebanon, according to the UN, with thousands more seeking refuge at a Russian air base on the Mediterranean coast. The United Nations Human Rights Office said that "perpetrators raided houses, asking residents whether they were Alawite or Sunni before proceeding to either kill or spare them accordingly", with men shot dead in front of their families in many cases.
Probably to save face, al-Sharaa hastily put in place a largely Islamist-dominated government, with token positions given to women, Christians, and Alawites for "inclusivity".
More recently, a second set of massacres - this time against the Druze minorities - unfolded in the community's stronghold of Suweida and neighbouring regions. After a ceasefire was called, fresh clashes broke out between the Druze and local government-backed Bedouin tribes, killing over a thousand and displacing more than 1.28 lakh people, according to UN estimates.
Israel, which had continued to intermittently bomb Syria during Assad's time, in a proxy war it had fought with Iran, continued these attacks as Al Sharaa took over. For the Jewish state, both Iran and the Sunni Islamists now in charge in Syria constitute an identical threat. Israel had pushed into Southern Syria using ground troops and expanded its presence around the Golan Heights, destroying its weapons cache. It called this act an expansion of a "buffer zone", saying the presence was required to protect the Druze minority there. In March, according to Israeli media, it struck three air bases in Syria - the T4 and Palmyra air bases in the Homs province and the main airport in the Hama province, where, it is widely believed, Turkiye was hoping to station its troops. Israel is also reported to be lobbying with the US to prevent the sale of F-35 jets to Ankara and also allow Russian bases to remain in Syria.
Turkiye, along with Qatar, are in the driver's seat in Syria. The Tahrir Hayat Al-Sham, like other rebel groups, were actively supported and sustained by them. While Qatar bankrolled them, Turkey helped them with military training, arms, logistics, transit, ideology, etc. Ankara is positioning itself to play a major role in the new Syria, filling a vacuum left by Iran. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has visited Syria, while its Defence Minister Yaşar Güler has already offered Damascus support in building up its military. Turkish companies are also looking forward to profiting from Syria's reconstruction, which is estimated at almost USD 500 billion. All these things point to Turkey's long-term plans to remain engaged with Damascus. Al-Shara has already made two official visits to Ankara since assuming power.
Israel sees Turkey's expanding presence in Syria as an existential threat. Both Qatar and Turkey have supported and aided Hamas. While the October 2023 Hamas attacks on Israel have forced Qatar to roll back its support to the group, Turkey has continued to support the group. It is also the most (or only) vocal critic of Israel's retaliatory actions in Gaza, and now has the upper hand in Syria. For Turkey, Syria is important not only for its ambitious goal of being the regional energy hub but is also critical for neutralising Turkey's Kurdish threat. Since 2016, Turkey has occupied north-western Syria and has consistently been expanding its presence there.
With Arab governments now hedging against the Islamists by befriending Al-Sharaa, and with US President Donald Trump's promise to remove sanctions against Syria, the Syrian threat to Israel is renewed. The Druze factor has played right into the hands of Israel, even though it was able to use the Syrian airspace to strike Iran in its recent 12-day war.
Turkey has for long been calling upon Israel to withdraw from southern Syria and has consistently defended Syria's territorial integrity. The dismemberment of the country would be detrimental to Turkey's own stranglehold on its Kurdish population and the just-concluded peace deal with the 'PKK', or the Kurdistan Workers' Party, which had waged a long and brutal insurgency against the Turkish government.
As news broke on June 13 about Israeli strikes on Iran, a Turkish colleague told me that it was actually Turkey that Israel was targeting. At the time of writing this, sources in the Turkish National Defence Ministry said that the Syrian government has requested official support from Turkey to strengthen its defence capacity and combat terror groups. President Erdoğan has also warned that Turkey would be forced to intervene if Israel did not stop its intervention in Syria. We do not know if Israel is done with Iran yet. But a new proxy war may just be unfolding in the volatile region - between Israel and Turkey this time. And Israel may have more covert support this time, not just from the Arab world but also from its arch-rival, Iran, which has been elbowed out from Syria, thanks to the Qatar-Turkey duo.
(The author is a journalist and political analyst)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
