The Karnataka election results have brought together strange bedfellows trying to forge a united opposition in the state. Despite ideological differences, the proximity between the BJP and the Janata Dal (Secular) is growing. Top leaders from both the parties have backed each other in the legislative assembly and on public platforms. This has led to questions on when the two parties will formally announce their strategy for next year's Lok Sabha elections. There have always been broad hints that the JD(S) could join the NDA camp any time.
The absence of JD(S) from the NDA meet in Delhi last week raised many eyebrows. HD Kumaraswamy, who had clearly shown his preference for the BJP, was not invited to the meet, apparently due to strong opposition from a section of Karnataka BJP leaders. The BJP's national leadership wants an alliance with the JD(S) to boost its prospects in Karnataka, especially after the drubbing in the state election in May.
It was former chief minister Basavaraj Bommai of the BJP who first indicated that both the parties were exploring the possibility of forming an alliance for the national election.
Now, Kumaraswamy is repeatedly saying the JD(S) and the BJP will work together in Karnataka. At a recent legislature party meeting, JD(S) supremo HD Deve Gowda allowed his son Kumaraswamy to decide on an alliance with the BJP. The patriarch urged his party members to work with his son, who will ultimately decide on an alliance with the BJP "at the right time".
The BJP won 25 of Karnataka's 28 Lok Sabha seats in the 2019 election. A repeat performance seems elusive for the party at a time the state Congress government is doing everything possible to implement its manifesto promises, including the "Five Guarantees" programme. BJP leaders - both at the national and state level - feel an alliance with the JD(S) will brighten their electoral chances in the Vokkaligga belt of South Karnataka, besides spoiling the Congress's prospects in the region.
The formation of 'INDIA', the coalition of 26 opposition parties, has rejuvenated Karnataka Congress leaders who are working with a vengeance for a repeat performance in the parliamentary elections.
Moreover, there are challenges to the alliance from both sides. The BJP seems to be going through a leadership crisis. In the days of BS Yeddyurappa, the party's face was a foregone conclusion. The BJP lacks a strong, charismatic local party leader acceptable to all sects and cadre alike, who can make the national leadership understand the region's political and social nuances.
A section of BJP leaders is averse to an alliance or a merger of the parties as it would lead to a crisis in the BJP on the formation of a common legislature party and electing HD Kumaraswamy as the opposition leader, among other things. These leaders feel it will demoralise the party cadre further after the recent defeat in state elections. The party has a strong cadre across Karnataka, and ceding its advantages or sharing it with the JD(S) will confuse the workers as well as BJP constituents. In 2019, when the JD(S) and Congress came together for the Lok Sabha elections, the two parties could win just one seat each.
The BJP is fine with the alliance but its leaders feel the JD(S) will be the biggest beneficiary of the two. As of today, the JD(S) has just one seat - Hassan, from where Prajwal Revanna, Deve Gowda's grandson, won in 2019. But within an alliance, the JD(S) can demand at least five seats - Mandya, Hassan, Kolar, Tumakuru, Bangalore Rural or Mysuru - and can win three to four seats.
For the JD(S), it is an existential crisis from which it is making a last-ditch effort to emerge. The grapevine has it that there was a discussion within the JD(S) for a merger with the BJP. However, Kumaraswamy wants to keep his options open, and is unlikely to hesitate in jumping ship when the time is right. For now, his reason for not merging is that he doesn't want to upset his father and JD(S) founder, Deve Gowda.
Another challenge to the coalition will be that the JD(S) has traditionally reached out to Muslim voters, which, in case of a shift to the NDA, will be a lost constituency for the party.
In tandem, both Bommai and Kumaraswamy asked the state government to take control of the Bangalore Mysore Infrastructure Corridor (BMIC) from NICE (Nandi Infrastructure Corridor Enterprises), and alleged that it had collected Rs 1,325 crore illegally from motorists in form of road tolls. Both the parties came together to denounce the Congress government's act of deploying IAS officers to receive and host leaders of opposition parties for their meeting in Bengaluru earlier. They collectively stopped the government from passing the APMC Amendment Bill, in the legislative council, where no party has a majority.
Prior to that, the BJP and JD(S) boycotted Chief Minister Siddaramaiah's reply to the Budget debate during assembly proceedings. Kumaraswamy also listed out the inadequacies in the Budget outside the assembly.
If it does go for an alliance with the JD(S) for the 2024 polls, the BJP will lose a critical narrative it crafted to counter dynastic politics. The JD(S) is a family party with at least seven active members of the Deve Gowda clan with electoral aspirations. Siddaramaiah quit the JD(S) in 2005 over his opposition to the rise of Kumaraswamy, who was then being groomed as the heir apparent of HD Deve Gowda. In fact, the shrinking vote of the JD(S) in the 2023 assembly election to 13.3% is ascribed, to a large extent, to Siddaramaiah's charisma.
If the NDA forms the government at the centre in 2024, the JD(S) can easily bag a couple of ministerial berths, which is an impossible dream if it fights the election on its own.
Amidst political compulsions, this 'friends-with-benefits' relationship between the BJP and JD(S) will last only until one of them seeks greener pastures elsewhere.
(Bharti Mishra Nath is a senior journalist.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.