The great Indian electoral race will commence in less than a fortnight, with citizens across 21 states and Union Territories casting their votes for the 18th Lok Sabha. Among these, Tamil Nadu, with 39 seats, along with Puducherry, accounts for a bulk of the 102 Lok Sabha constituencies to go to the polls in the first phase on April 19.
General elections to elect a new government generate significant interest in the country and beyond. In the first of the seven-phase polls, Tamil Nadu will be observed with keen interest. It is in this South Indian state that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has raised its stake in the current elections without aligning with either of the Dravidian parties, which have dominated Tamil politics for the past six decades.
A Possible 'Third' Force?
Considered largely a bipolar political state, the BJP, under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is making a serious attempt to carve out a space for itself in Tamil Nadu and emerge as a third force distinct from Dravidian influence. This strategy has been formulated over two years through cultural connect programmes like the Kashi-Tamil Sangamam and the symbolic installation of the 'Sengol' (sceptre) in Parliament.
The BJP has allied with the Pattali Makkal Kaatchi (PMK), the Tamil Manila Congress (TMC), the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK), and a few other regional players. Interestingly, the TMC and the PMK are led by G.K. Vasan and Anbumani Ramadoss, respectively, both of whom served as Union Ministers in the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government under Manmohan Singh.
Seat Calculations
The BJP is contesting 23 seats, the PMK 10, the TMC three and the AMMK two, while former Chief Minister O. Panneerselvam, aka OPS, now aligned with the BJP, is contesting independently. Three contestants, one each from the Indhiya Jananayaga Katchi, the Puthiya Needhi Katchi, and the Tamizhaga Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam, will fight under the BJP symbol.
The PMK holds a unique position, having been an ally of both the DMK and the AIADMK in the past, with support from the Vanniyar community, which holds considerable influence in the northern parts of the state.
The AIADMK experienced upheavals, with former Chief Minister Edappadi Palaniswami expelling his predecessor O. Panneerselvam from the party. Palaniswami is now seeking to establish himself as the undisputed successor to Jayalalithaa. He chose not to align with the BJP, viewing the Lok Sabha polls as a test before the 2026 Assembly elections.
Despite his expulsion, O. Panneerselvam is contesting independently from the Ramanathapuram constituency. Interestingly, four other contestants with the same name as him will also be in the fray, presenting a peculiar situation.
Why The Opposition Remains Confident
On the opposite side of the political spectrum stands the I.N.D.I.A bloc led by Chief Minister and DMK leader Stalin. He is confident of sweeping all 40 seats, including Puducherry, currently held by the Congress.
The DMK is contesting 22 seats, the Congress nine, the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI-M) and the CPI two each, and the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi one and the Indian Union Muslim League one seat each. A candidate from the Kongunadu Makkal Desiya Katchi is running on a DMK ticket.
Stalin is confident that his government's work, especially for women, will provide a solid foundation for his party and the alliance's candidates to emerge victorious in this three-way contest. In the DMK's assessment, the primary challenge will come from the AIADMK. It believes the BJP's efforts, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi's multiple visits, are unlikely to have a significant impact.
The Coimbatore Battle
The young BJP state president and former IPS officer K. Annamalai has been active for the past year, endeavouring to build momentum through his six-month-long 'En Mann, En Makkal' (My Soil, My People) walkathon. Annamalai is contesting from the Coimbatore Lok Sabha constituency, which has historically favoured the AIADMK. However, in 1998, C.P. Radhakrishnan of the BJP did win the seat and retained it till 1999. The BJP also secured the assembly seat in 2021. PM Modi's roadshow indicates the BJP's reliance on youth to bring about change in the state from this industrial city.
Recognising the significance of the constituency and the need to neutralise any advantage the BJP may have gained, Stalin and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi will hold a rally here on April 12.
Leading its campaign on the planks of democracy, fairness, and equitable distribution of resources, the I.N.D.I.A bloc asserts its stance. In response, the BJP argues that the opposition platform is merely a coalition of dynasts protecting their interests and obstructing India's journey towards development.
(K.V. Prasad is a senior Delhi-based journalist)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author