The Aam Aadmi Party is heading for an existential crisis - the biggest it has ever faced. It is ironic that the downfall of the party, which was created to make India corruption-free, has been triggered by corruption charges. Though no obituary should ever be written for any party or a phenomenon, AAP will find it difficult to detach itself from the charges and it will be a miracle if that happens.
This crisis is of its own making. The liquor policy, which was once proclaimed as another innovative idea by AAP in the art of governance and policy making, has become its Achilles heel. The Supreme Court's rejection of Manish Sisodia's bail application is the defining moment. Till date, AAP, its leaders and supporters were very hopeful that Manish Sisodia might get bail and would walk out of the Tihar Jail with his head held high.
And there was reason for that. The Supreme Court, during its hearing had said that there was "no evidence" against Manish Sisodia and implicating "statement of an approver was not enough" to keep him in jail for eternity. These were powerful observations by the highest court of the land. But, unfortunately, this was an observation, and not part of the verdict; the observation of the court can make a big headline, but it has no bearing on the merit of the case. The final verdict of the court is what matters in our judicial system.
Now, the court, in its 47-page judgment, has clearly hinted that there is a prima facie case against Manish Sisodia. According to the court there seems to be a money trail and it appears that the change in liquor policy was done with an intent to benefit private players. The Supreme Court has seemingly accepted the Enforcement Directorate's line of argument that the increase in the commission from 5 per cent to 12 per cent to the liquor distributors was done for their benefit and, because of that, Rs 338 crore profit was accrued to their account.
This shows that the court has accepted the ED's plea that even if there was no cash recovery from him, there is a money trail which establishes his prima facie complicity in the matter and it should be properly investigated. Till then he can't walk out of jail provided the trial does not protract for long. This means that Manish Sisodia has to contend with another six-to-eight months in jail. It has not only bolstered the ED's case legally and demolished AAP's argument of a witch-hunt but morally also, in the eyes of public, exonerated the Modi government of any wrongdoing. This will be the biggest takeaway of the Supreme Court verdict.
From now onwards, the Aam Aadmi Party's argument of a conspiracy against the party and its leaders may not cut much ice with a large section of society. No doubt, even the credibility of the judicial system has fallen in the past few decades but people still hold the Supreme Court in very high esteem and its integrity is still not doubted by public at large.
It is no coincidence that, within a few hours of the verdict, the ED was encouraged to issue summons to Arvind Kejriwal to appear before the agency for interrogation. There is a very high probability that he may also be arrested. And, if that happens then, in the context of the court verdict, AAP will find it difficult to weave an argument that Kejriwal is being wilfully targeted by the agency at the behest of the Modi government. The perpetual doubt that will hang over their heads from now onwards is that since there is a strong case against Manish Sisodia - why is why he is not getting bail even from the Supreme Court - the involvement of the chief minister cannot be ruled out too.
Because it is well-known that, in AAP, nothing moves without his knowledge or without his sanction. Kejriwal is the party and the government, the rest only follow his instructions.
Undoubtedly, Kejriwal's arrest will be catastrophic for the party. The first question will be, who will replace him as the chief minister? Second, who will run the party in his absence? The arrest of a chief minister is not a new thing in Indian politics. Lalu Prasad Yadav was arrested in the fodder scam when he was the chief minister of Bihar. Lalu was then seen as a messiah of the OBC community. He was a popular leader and was very powerful then. When he was arrested, his wife Rabri Devi replaced him as chief minister, and the party and the government survived. Similarly, Jayalalithaa was also arrested. O Panneerselvam, her proxy, was anointed as the chief minister of Tamil Nadu. The RJD and the AIADMK both survived the absence of their top leaders. Will history repeat itself is the question? Unlike the RJD and the AIADMK, AAP is not privileged with a strong political legacy and institutional memory.
There were other big leaders in the RJD and the AIADMK, who could unite and collectively face the crisis. With the arrest of Manish Sisodia and Sanjay Singh, AAP's big leaders, who command respect in the party hierarchy and acceptance of the ground level cadre, that luxury is no longer available. Therefore, there is a serious question about who can replace Kejriwal if the ED takes him in custody? I am sure, Kejriwal will anoint someone whose loyalty is beyond question. But will others accept him or her, is the question.
If he is arrested now, it will be a big embarrassment for the INDIA alliance. After the Supreme Court verdict, the opposition charge will definitely weaken. They might still extend their support to AAP, but not beyond a point.
There can be a counter argument. Kejriwal is no ordinary leader. He has a strong mass appeal, especially as a moral crusader. In Delhi, his popularity is unparalleled. If he is arrested, it might boomerang on the central government and the BJP might have to face people's anger. Will AAP be in a position to catalyse people's anger into political capital, I am not very sure. In the absence of big leaders, AAP will find it difficult to exploit that sentiment. If Kejriwal had allowed the party structure to grow, had cultivated leaders of talent and a mass base, then it would have been a different case. In this context, one can ask will Bhagwant Mann be the person who can guide the party through choppy waters? Will he take on the mantle? No doubt he has the political capital and stature to fill the void, but will he have Kejriwal's blessings is the million dollar question.
Anyway, these are tough times. The future looks uncertain. But it is also true that a crisis has the uncanny habit of throwing up leaders. Who knows there might be a leader who can give stability to the party and lead it.
(Ashutosh is author of 'Hindu Rashtra' and Editor, satyahindi.com.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.