Nepal stands at an inflexion point. In the last two days, there has been a complete overhaul of the country's political system. The Prime Minister resigned citing the need to resolve the issue politically, in line with the country's constitution. His resignation was a major demand of the protesters who considered him culpable in the death of 19 protesters on September 8. Many senior leaders were targeted inside their own houses and their residences, both of the opposition and the ruling coalition were set ablaze while the supreme court, the parliament complex and other official buildings were also set on fire. On September 9, the Nepal army deployed troops on the streets, with the chief of the army staff urging people to step back and let them handle the law and order situation.
A First Since 2008
This sharp escalation in violence, not seen since the overthrow of the monarchy in 2008, followed the Gen Z protests against endemic issues plaguing the country. The directive ordering a ban on 26 social media sites was seen as the immediate catalyst for the movement. Only three applications were working, including TikTok, which had registered with Nepal's law last year and thus was not listed in the current ban. The application was banned back in 2023 and only became accessible with the return of the Oli led government to power.
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But the demands of the protesters were all-pervasive, calling for an end to corruption and misgovernance in the country. A few days before the ban was imposed, videos on social media circulated under the ‘Nepo Baby' trend- a critique of the difference in lifestyle between the families of the political elites and the common people. They were criticised for funding their lavish lifestyle through taxpayers' money while the common people struggled, either within the country or by migrating to the Gulf, Europe, the United States and Australia where they were stuck doing low paying jobs. Economic growth in the country has been stagnant, while employment in the productive sectors is scarce, with the shortage of skilled labour also rendering any existing vacancies futile. The migration of youngsters abroad has created this vacuum while making the economy dependent on the receipt of remittances from abroad.
Nepal Has Always Been On Boil
In its seventeen years as a democracy, stability has always been elusive for Nepal. The fruits of a federal democratic republic have over the years failed to fall in the basket of the common people. The game of musical chairs that the three mainstream political parties were playing for the Prime Minister's post - trying to protect their vested interests and their goals of self-aggrandisement - have dented the people's confidence. Nepal's Commission for the Investigation of Abuse of Authority (CIAA) has over the years charged former Prime Ministers of being involved in cases of corruption. Even in the development of big infrastructure projects, there have been allegations of favouritism, with Chinese companies being favoured over others without due process and many Chinese funded projects coming under the radar for financial mismanagement like the Pokhara international airport. This red tape surrounding big ticket infrastructure projects which allowed corrupt leaders to earn favour and increase their wealth and which adversely affected the quality of infrastructure development in the country had been a cause of concern.
Broken Promises
When the CPN (UML) and Nepali Congress coalition assumed power in July 2024, they assuaged concerns about the frequent government changes by assuring that they will work towards adopting a common framework for governance. But as the term progressed, no consensus could be formed and the Prime Minister governed through the passing of executive orders unilaterally, bypassing the parliamentary procedure. The ban on social media thus didn't emerge in a vacuum and was perceived as the government's attempt to stifle dissent. The allegations of corruption, on all major political leaders and their impunity against the judicial process and the tendency to stifle any form of dissent pushed the youngsters on the edge. This simmering discontent finally came out in the open with full force in the latest protests.
But the protests soon turned violent and chaos ensued as some protesters broke through the barricades and entered the parliament. The ensuing use of force by the armed police led to the death of 19 people on the first day. Three more people succumbed to their injuries the next day, while around 400 are being treated in hospitals.
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When the street protests erupted on September 8, nobody could have foreseen the scale and intensity with which they would grow. Young people in droves, dressed in school uniforms and with books in their hands carried the banners of ‘youth against corruption' and ‘GenZ Movement of Nepal' and mobilised on the streets. They called for an end to misgovernance, corruption and nepotism. But soon, pictures of blood-soaked streets and youngsters carrying their peers to hospitals emerged. By the end of the day, some senior leaders from the coalition, particularly the Home Minister, had resigned, while opposition parties were creating pressure on the ruling government to listen to the demands of the people. In a meeting of the council of ministers, the government decided to set up a judicial probe on the events of the day. The following day, despite the imposition of curfews banning large gatherings in major city centres, people came on the streets. On social media, visuals of the Foreign Minister Arzu Rana Deuba and her husband and Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba being assaulted in their house, the Finance Minister being paraded on the streets and the scrambling hustle of helicopters ferrying leaders away from their houses started circulating. By the afternoon, the Prime Minister had resigned.
This Isn't The End
As violence escalated, many groups, speaking on behalf of the Gen Z protesters released statements denying their involvement in any acts of vandalism, blaming vested interests for fomenting trouble and trying to take the movement away from them. Notwithstanding these concerns, even as the resignation of Prime Minister Oli was perceived as a necessary outcome of the protests, with many celebrating through victory marches and the leader of the youth organisation that mobilised the youth regarding it as their win, the emphasis is on the need to control the fast evolving situation from deteriorating further. Any conversation on the next steps for the country can only take concrete shape once there is a halt in the violence as concerns emerge about the takeover of the protests were vested groups not part of the initial protests.
As the country now grapples in the aftermath of the protests, questions and speculations about how the new political framework will be structured abound. Leaders like Balen Shah, the mayor of Kathmandu and Rabi Lamicchhane who was released from the jail as fears about a possible picketing of the prison gained ground, have all urged the protesters to stop their vandalism and no longer burn the country's infrastructure. Any understanding of how the situation will develop will depend on how quickly the violence is clamped down and peace prevails.
(Harsh V Pant is Vice President, ORF. Shivam Shekhawat is a Junior Fellow with ORF's Strategic Studies Programme)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
