Analysts believe the Bajrang Dal controversy and beneficiary politics will help the BJP in Karnataka. For counterpoint, refer to Ajay Kumar's column here.
In less than a week, the fate of Karnataka Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai will be decided by voters. If the recent opinion polls by some media organisations can be taken as an indicator, then it is all over for the BJP and Congress is returning to power with at least a comfortable majority.
However, the question before the BJP is whether Prime Minister Narendra Modi's popularity can turn the tide and rescue the state government as it faces anti-incumbency and allegations of corruption.
For some BJP leaders, the answer to this question is "yes". Speaking to the media during his Karnataka campaign, Home Minister Amit Shah argued that PM Modi has created a new caste in the country, and the name of the caste is the "beneficiary" who will vote for the party and ensure the BJP's return.
To put it simply, out of 5.24 crore voters in Karnataka, the union government has provided subsidised food to nearly four crore people - about 75% of voters. Just before the voting, BJP leaders are reaching out to these beneficiaries.
In nine years of the Modi government, four lakh houses have been constructed for the financially weaker sections, 48 lakh toilets have been built, 37 lakh cooking gas connections have been provided, 54 lakh farmers have been provided Rs 6,000 as minimum income support and 44 lakh tap water connections have been provided under Jal Jeevan Mission (JJM).
"PM Modi continues to enjoy a special connection with the people, and there has been no change in his popularity in the last nine years since BJP has been in power at the Centre. But the people of Karnataka have to choose the chief minister this time. I believe there is a dilemma in the minds of people and the election is still open. It is possible that the BJP will perform better than expectations," a senior BJP leader said on the condition of anonymity.
BJP leaders point out that there have been two phases to any election campaign in India in the past decade - pre-Modi and post-Modi. The latter is when Prime Minister Modi is the star of public meetings and road shows.
Senior BJP leaders believe the Congress's announcement on banning the Bajrang Dal if it comes to power has invigorated the cadre, not just the BJP's but that of its affiliates. Earlier, the election issues were all about anti-incumbency, BJP leaders exiting, and allegations of corruption, but after the PM's appeal to people to vote for the BJP, the narrative has changed.
"There is no confusion in the minds of people when it comes to electing the Prime Minister. Modi remains the most popular leader, and beneficiary politics will play a decisive role in the Lok Sabha polls. If people look at the state government before voting, then there could be problems for the Bommai government. If voters look at PM Modi, then the BJP will manage to break caste barriers and get votes from all communities," added the BJP leader quoted above.
Political analysts believe that the debate over the ban on Bajrang Dal will help the BJP consolidate its voter base, but it may not have an impact in all constituencies. Experts suggest that the politics of beneficiaries, spearheaded by the PM, can influence voters to support the BJP.
"We have noticed that the relationship between the state and the beneficiaries is now like patron and client, where the state is the patron and the beneficiaries are the clientele. This relationship has played a key role in the outcome of the election, but it is difficult to ascertain if it can become the gamechanger for the BJP in Karnataka. It is difficult to suggest that one issue will be prevalent across all constituencies," said Yatindra Singh Sisodia, professor and director at the Madhya Pradesh Institute of Social Science Research, Ujjain.
Gyan Verma was Senior Editor (Politics) at Mint. He has been a journalist for nearly two decades and writes on the politics and intersection of policy and politics.
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.