A year has passed since the Sheikh Hasina government was ousted in Bangladesh. The end of a near-permanent administration, ruled by the former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's iron fist, left a power vacuum with no obvious incumbent and domestic chaos erupting across the country. Yet, within a month, an interim government was nominated to power by the Anti-Discrimination Students Movement, to tide over the crisis and pave the way for the next national referendum. Under Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus and his Council of Advisers, the country has since been taking a course distinctly different from the established trajectories of the ‘Hasina past'. The implications for Dhaka are significant, as the new dispensation seeks a new identity for the country that sits at odds with its past but aligns with its priorities of the moment.
The immediate cause of Hasina's ouster had been the government's violent crackdown on the students' protests against the quota reforms. However, public resentment had been brewing in the country for years for several reasons. Naturally, one of the first tasks of the interim government had been to restore the fractured democracy. Accordingly, it appointed the National Consensus Commission to reach an all-party consensus to draft the procedures for future governance.
The July Charter That Was To Be
The July Charter, as it has been named, was released on August 5, 2025, to mark the first anniversary of the revolution. However, it is still in the draft stage. While agreements have been reached on some of its terms, such as the revival of the caretaker government system and the formation of the Election Commission, the parties remain divided on other fronts, including the separation of powers between the Prime Minister, Head of the ruling party, and the Head of Parliament. Some of the political parties have also expressed their reservations about the draft, terming it “incomplete” and requiring further discussions before formalisation. Moreover, the drafting process of the July Charter has not been inclusive, with the Awami League (disbanded in May 2025) and the Jatiya Party supporters of the former left out of the process. It will be important to ensure that the July Charter is free of political prejudices, including those of the interim government, as the promised polls approach in 2026. Beyond constitutional reform, the interim government is also facing challenges of communal harmony and social inclusion.
In Bangladesh's new era, secularism is also a question that needs deliberation. The aftermath of Hasina's ouster witnessed a reportedly significant rise in violence against the Hindus, the largest minority community in the country. The arrest and imprisonment of the Iskon leader sparked further communal tensions, creating uncertainty about their fate under this new regime. While the interim government maintained that the aggression had been essentially against senior Awami League members, who happened to be Hindus, and not necessarily against the faith, Yunus called for communal harmony. Yet, in a country where the political future is uncertain, a secular party has been disbanded, and political parties with reports of religious intolerance are at the electoral forefront, the fate of the marginalised will be tested.
Rewriting Its Destiny
The regime change has not only left its imprint on domestic politics but has also shaped foreign policy. Breaking its past mould of maintaining a diplomatic balance between India and China, Dhaka's relations have strained with New Delhi. This detriment can be attributed to various factors, namely, Hasina's continued shelter in India, the minority attacks in Bangladesh, and Dhaka's unstinted outreach to Pakistan and China, insensitive to India's strategic considerations. For the first time since its inception in 1971, Dhaka has sought active cooperation with Islamabad, which has been well reciprocated. As India's developmental projects remain halted, there is also more room for Beijing to strengthen its foothold in Bangladesh and thereby in the Bay of Bengal region. However, these strategic shifts cannot be interpreted as representative of Bangladesh's popular views, since the interim government is not an elected choice.
A year into the regime change, Bangladesh stands at a crossroads between reawakening and regression. Dhaka is in transition, with the interim government balancing internal expectations, external interests, and mounting pressures to hand over to an elected administration. The student protests that led to the political upheaval offered an opportunity for the country to reinvent itself. However, the way forward is marked by positive initiatives that need fruition and pitfalls that must be navigated. In the process, the identity of Bangladesh will be tested, contested, and reshaped.
(Harsh V. Pant is is Vice President, Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi. Sohini Bose is an Associate Fellow – Neighbourhood Studies, Observer Research Foundation, Kolkata.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
