Monsoon: All El Nino years are not bad monsoon years, the IMD said.
India will witness normal rainfall pattern during the monsoon season this year, the centre said today.
There is a 67-per cent probability of normal to above-normal rainfall, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.
"India to see normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season (from June to September). It is likely to be 96 per cent of the long-period average of roughly 87 cm," M Ravichandran, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences said.
The government forecast comes as a relief for the agricultural sector, which heavily relies on monsoon rains for crop production.
On Monday, Skymet, a private weather agency, predicted below-normal monsoon rain this year due to the end of La Nina conditions and the potential for El Nino to take hold.
The weather office, however, today said that there is no "one-to-one" relation between El Nino and monsoon rainfall in India. "All El Nino years are not bad monsoon years," the IMD said.
"If at all there is any adverse impact due to the evolving El Nino conditions during the monsoon season, it is likely to be countered by the favourable impact of a positive IOD and the lower snow cover over the northern hemisphere," said M Mohapatra, Director General of Meteorology, IMD.
Senior meteorologists said positive IOD conditions are likely to develop during the southwest monsoon season.
El Nino refers to warming of the waters in the Pacific Ocean near South America. It is associated with weakening of monsoon winds in India.
The IOD is defined by the difference in the sea surface temperatures between the western parts of the Indian Ocean near Africa and the eastern parts of the ocean near Indonesia.
Earlier this month, the weather department had said that several parts of country, barring parts of northwest and peninsular region, are expected to experience above-normal maximum temperatures from April to June.
India registered its hottest February in 2023 since record-keeping began in 1901, according to the IMD. However, above-normal rainfall due to seven western disturbances, including five strong ones, kept temperatures in check in March.