- Illegal infiltration, a key political issue in border states, has now hit Mumbai, say researchers
- Researchers have mapped 61 pockets in Mumbai with 3,014 illegal immigrants from Bangladesh and Myanmar
- Most migrants have got Indian identity documents through agents who charge between Rs 7,000 and Rs 30,000
India's border states, such as Assam, Tripura, and West Bengal, frequently make headlines regarding illegal infiltration, a major political flashpoint.
In his Independence Day address last year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared a new mission for an "Infiltration-Free India," a stance cited extensively by the BJP during the Bihar assembly elections. Infiltration remains a pivotal issue in the upcoming polls in West Bengal and Assam.
However, at the other end of the country, India's financial capital appears to have become a significant hub for illegal immigrants, specifically Muslims from Bangladesh and Myanmar.
The Findings
A special investigation by NDTV, featuring a report by Professor Medha Tapiwala of the Mumbai School of Economics and Public Policy (MSEPP) and Souvik Mondal, Assistant Professor at Noida's Galgotias University and former TISS researcher, sheds light on this shift.
While the exact data on the total population of illegal immigrants in Mumbai is unavailable, researchers mapped 61 pockets across the city and interviewed 3,014 Bangladeshi and Myanmar Muslims. The report found that most interviewees entered India without valid visas and now possessed Indian identity documents, including Aadhaar and Voter ID cards.
The TISS report was released in November 2024 as an interim report, with Souvik Mondal serving as one of its researchers. The latest survey report by Mumbai University was subsequently released on December 22, 2025.
Mondal, now affiliated with Galgotias University in Noida, is a key researcher for this new report, which serves as an extension -- effectively the full version of the initial TISS study.
Out of the 7,000-plus individuals interviewed for this comprehensive report, 3,014 were identified as illegal infiltrators, and among these illegal immigrants, 96 per cent were found to be Muslims from Bangladesh and Myanmar.
"A poor individual leaves Bangladesh, enters India, obtains fraudulent identity documents, becomes a voter, and eventually participates in municipal, assembly, and national elections," said Mondal. "Their numbers are rising steadily due to continuous support from a 'grey religious network'," he added.
The 'Malvani Pattern'
The process of obtaining documentation is reportedly straightforward. In various city pockets, agents provide complete sets of identity papers for fees ranging from Rs 7,000 to Rs 30,000.
"Whoever arrives goes to a local agent. The agent handles everything-birth certificates, Voter IDs, Aadhaar, and PAN cards," Mondal explained.
He noted that this system has been operational for 12-13 years, allowing illegal migrants to access welfare schemes and secure local protection.
Once they obtain Voter IDs, these migrants often form "vote clusters," delivering consolidated votes to candidates who, in exchange, provide protection. Mondal said in Mumbai, approximately six assembly constituencies, one Lok Sabha seat, and 56 municipal wards are now significantly impacted by this demographic shift.
According to the report, 73 per cent of those surveyed already possess Voter ID cards.
In Mumbai, this process is known as the "Malvani Pattern":
- An illegal settlement emerges in swampy or mangrove areas.
- Makeshift huts are constructed.
- Religious structures are built (often without domes or minarets initially).
- Local leaders intervene to protect the settlement.
- Fraudulent documents are procured.
- Local voter lists undergo a permanent change.
Funding and Infrastructure
NDTV found houses within these illegal settlements -- some located adjacent to Indian Navy compounds -- boasting tiled floors, expensive paint and modern fittings. The TISS and MSEPP (Mumbai university) reports claim these settlers often have high earnings from opaque sources.
"Bangladeshis arrive here, and money collected after Friday prayers is often deposited into specific accounts before being transferred elsewhere," Mondal alleged. "There are at least 20-25 such accounts. If Rs 5 lakh entered a regular citizen's account, it would be flagged immediately, but here, there is no action."
The Changing Demographics
The MSEPP report, titled "The Mumbai - Silent Invasion," provides startling statistics.
In 1951, Hindus comprised 88 per cent of Mumbai's population. By 2011, that figure dropped to 66 per cent. During the same period, the Muslim population share grew from 8 per cent to 21 per cent. The report estimates that by 2051, the Hindu population could fall to approximately 50 per cent, potentially making them a minority in the city.
The report claims this growth is not natural but driven largely by illegal Bangladeshi and Rohingya immigration.
It warns that this demographic shift is contributing to communal tensions and poses a long-term challenge to national security and the city's social structure.
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