Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran told NDTV today that the momentum in economic growth is expected to continue, which is why a high growth in GDP (Gross Domestic Product) could be predicted for the coming fiscal year (2023-24).
Speaking to NDTV ahead of the presentation of the Union budget tomorrow, Mr Nageswaran said the prediction of economic growth released a few weeks ago, was estimated at around 7 per cent for the current fiscal.
Asked about the basis of the GDP forecast for the next fiscal, Mr Nageswaran said: "Growth rate in the third and fourth quarter will be slightly low but if you look at the historical pattern, there is no trend that if economic growth slows down over third and fourth quarter, it spills over into the first quarter. That doesn't happen. So overall, we are confident of the economy growing by 6.5 per cent".
"The downside risk is higher, because currently industrial production, credit growth, private sector investment, private consumption -- all of them are growing at a reasonable rate and the trend will continue," he said.
There was also a statutory warning: "Any statement about economic growth is subject to assumptions. The underlying assumptions are that commodity prices will not go back up like in 2022."
Subject to these assumptions, "our best guess is that the economy will grow around 6.5 per cent per annum in real terms next year," he said. "The range is 6 to 6.8 per cent (2023-24), which means the downside risk is slightly higher. So, the chances of economy going below 6 per cent is higher than it going beyond 6.5 per cent," he added.
Mr Nageswaran's team has forecast economic growth of 6.5 per cent in fiscal 2023-2024 -- down from the 7 per cent in the current fiscal.
"The projection is broadly comparable to the estimates provided by multilateral agencies such as the World Bank, the IMF, and the ADB and by RBI, domestically. The actual outcome for real GDP growth will probably lie in the range of 6 per cent to 6.8 per cent, depending on the trajectory of economic and political developments globally," the Economic Survey said.