Analysis: Tamil Nadu Heads For Dravidian Shakeout After Assembly Poll Verdict

The entry of a superstar in Tamil Nadu's politics has led to increased attention to politics in the state. The fact that an exit poll after the state assembly elections by a respected opinion poll agency, Axis My India, led by Pradeep Gupta, has given C. Joseph Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, a high chance of storming to power, makes the star-turned-politician even more of a headline grabber. The colourful rallies he leads with thronging crowds and speeches laden with punchlines only make the visual appeal stronger.

However, it is time to look beyond all that.

As this is being written, we are less than 48 hours away from the final verdict of the state polls that took place on April 23. What we perhaps missed in the glamour of Vijay's political rain-making are the subterranean realities of Tamil Nadu politics and the likelihood of an overhaul of state politics after the verdict is out - irrespective of who wins. 

Here's where I am tempted to borrow a memorable expression from former Prime Minister V.P. Singh, who said at the turn of the 1990s that India was heading for a "realignment of political forces." His broad reference was to the rise of the other backward classes (OBC) in northern India as a politically aspirational community, parallel to the emergence of the Hindutva-infused Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as a national force that led to the replacement of anti-Congressism with anti-BJPism.

In the context of Tamil Nadu, I am tempted to call the condition we are heading for a "Realignment of Dravidian forces" that will see a Kazhagam (organisation) or Katchi (party) change contours and colours.

The alphabet soup of Tamil Nadu politics includes the DMK, the AIADMK, the TVK, the MDMK, the DMDK, the PMK  and the VCK, peppered with the AMMK, NTK and other minor parties representing a caste here, a frayed film star there and a regional outfit or minority group or a tycoon somewhere. The only word that might connect all these forces competing today but shifting loyalties tomorrow in an uneasy coalition is the adjective"Dravidian" - a broad reference to Tamil-speaking people, mostly comprised of the OBCs or other emerging social groups, including the Dalits -- powered by a mix of education, aspiration and localised identities that changes political psychology.

What we have already is a huge political vacuum caused by the splintering of political parties on the one hand and a Jayalalithaa-shaped void left by the premature death of the AIADMK leader in 2016. The DMK-AIADMK rivalry had all along provided the comfort of a simpler alliance game resembling a duopoly in which minor parties or lesser parties, including communist groups, formed long tails to the two nucleus parties.

Jayalalithaa's death while she was a sitting chief minister led to an implosion in the AIADMK, which led to the M.K. Stalin-led DMK storming to power in a mix of anti-incumbency and pro-stability sentiment in 2026. Stalin's father, the towering Muthuvel Karunanidhi, died in 2018, signalling that the DMK had lost some of its sheen.

The AIADMK now appears outwardly stable under Jayalalithaa's immediate party successor, Edappadi K. Palaniswami or EPS. It is helped by its uneasy entry into the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance. But the ground reality we are heading for is far from stable, even if EPS regains power -- which appears less probable to most independent poll pundits.

Here's why. 

AIADMK, compared with its old might, is quite shaky. The chief rival of EPS, O. Panneerselvam or OPS, is now with the DMK. Former minister K.A Sengottaiyan has joined Vijay's TVK bandwagon. V.K. Sasikala, Jayalalithaa's one-time confidant and home manager, has dusted off her jail years as a corruption convict to launch the All India Puratchithalaivar Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam and has been campaigning in a van to invoke her mentor's style - and is fondly called "Chinnamma" by her followers to signal that she is the heiress apparent to the late "Amma". But her sister's son, T.T.V. Dhinakaran, has his own party, the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam, which, without any truck with EPS, has a separate entry into the BJP-led NDA.

Also read: Actor Vijay And His Search For A Big Political Role In Tamil Nadu

I will stop here as further details on minor leaders and parties will only confuse readers - except to add that the once formidable PMK has a father-son rift and is a divided party as well.

All told, all these "forces" will look at the mandate emerging on May 4 to see which way the wind is blowing. This will result in their realigning their priorities and loyalties.

Will Vijay emerge as a new nucleus? Will EPS remain the main nucleus of anti-DMK politics? Will the DMK shop for more leaders from the ruins of its main rival? Will the increasingly assertive and educated youth of Tamil Nadu throw up new leaders from the Gen Z ranks? Many of the current lot of leaders are ageing, and no longer in a position to keep their flock together - even as their main lieutenants show more ambition than loyalty.

We will have to wait and see what happens. But I am certain that the verdict is not going to be just about who will form the next government in Tamil Nadu. It is going to be how new alliances may emerge from the debris of this year's elections - whether it is a hung assembly or a clear verdict.