Actor Vijay's Mega Rally In Madurai: High On Rhetoric, But Is It On Strategy?

The sea of humanity at Madurai was anticipated. Actor-turned-politician Vijay is at the peak of his popularity, and his star power rivals the pinnacle of such frenzy for the most powerful of superstars that Tamil cinema has seen.

He called himself a lion on the political stage at Madurai, declared he was the party's candidate in all 234 seats. He claimed that Tamil Nadu 2026 is a straight fight between his Tamizhaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK) and the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), virtually dismissing the principal opposition party, the All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam AIADMK) as a non-entity. He chastised the DMK and MK Stalin as much as he attacked Prime Minister Modi and the BJP.

All of this he has said before - he can say it again, and his fans will remain in a frenzy. But what substantial political, electoral strategy has been unveiled? Even the legendary M G Ramachandran needed a pre-poll alliance to take power in Tamil Nadu, so did Jayalalithaa and M Karunanidhi, who only wrested power with a firm alliance.

Vijay declared he "doesn't need allies", but is open to any party abiding by his leadership and joining forces with him. It's been almost a year since his party's first conference at Vikravandi in Northern Tamil Nadu. So far, none of the smaller parties seems to have headed towards Vijay.

The DMK is already trying to woo parties like the DMDK (Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam) into its already packed and tested alliance of more than 10 electoral forces. The AIADMK-BJP alliance, too, is working on expanding its footprint, but Vijay seems to be walking a star path all by himself.

There are a few who doubt his ability to get a considerable vote share in an election on his own, but there are many who question if that will be enough to turn into seats. Even in its worst rout election of 1996, the AIADMK got around 27 percent vote, but won only 4 seats. In its worst assembly election in 2011, the DMK alliance won a 39 odd percent vote share, but managed just 31 of the 234 seats. DMK by itself even lost the principal opposition status in the assembly after that election.

This shows two aspects of TN politics:

1. Even at their worst, the AIADMK and DMK have held on to a core, committed party vote over many decades. Loyalty to the symbols - two leaves for AIADMK and rising sun for the DMK - runs very strongly.

2. That even with a 30 percent vote share, winning seats is not a guarantee. This is why both the DMK and AIADMK - even under MGR, Karunanidhi, and Jayalalithaa - always built alliances to get the arithmetic in different regions to get past the post and win seats.

Bottom line, Vijay needs allies. He may be a game changer, but only if he turns his star power into votes. His filmy dialogues, like "I am the candidate in all 234 seats," could rouse his huge fan following, but he needs strong candidates in all 234 seats to turn fans into votes and do grassroots electoral management.

In fact, in a politically astute state, even an MGR or Jayalalithaa never declared themselves as the candidate everywhere. Though it was obvious that it was their face that mattered the most - much like Prime Minister Modi or the Congress under Indira Gandhi - the candidate and party leadership are crucial factors in an election.

Vijay invoking MGR repeatedly and making this a TVK Vs DMK contest should worry the AIADMK. The party has not won an election since the demise of J Jayalalithaa - it lost in 2019, 2021, and 2024. Edappadi Palaniwamy certainly does not have the charisma of a Jayalalithaa or an MGR. However, EPS does have a caste base and a party structure. Most importantly, MGR's two leaves symbol. Vijay will dent the AIADMK, but by how much will determine EPS's future.

At the same time, Vijay is from the Christian community, and while his appeal is well beyond caste and religious divides, he has a huge minority, Dalit, and youth fan following. If this turns into votes, this could hurt the DMK deeply.

In the end, Vijay the lion has roared, and it's a loud and powerful roar. His political opponents are wary, but he still has miles to go, candidates to field, and a party to build before he shakes Dravidian political realities.