Why Nipah Virus Isn't The Next Covid-19: 3 Diseases Might Be Bigger Pandemic Risks

Since the first Nipah virus outbreaks in Asia (starting with pig farms in Malaysia in 1998-99), the pathogen has drawn global attention, especially during localized cases in India and Bangladesh, due to its high fatality rate and lack of a licensed vaccine or specific treatment. Currently, the Nipah virus outbreak in West Bengal, where 2 confirmed cases were reported in mid-January 2026, is being strictly observed. Countries like Thailand, Australia and Nepal have started precautionary screenings at international airports too, giving travellers flashbacks to the Covid-19 pandemic. However, Nipah virus (NiV) and Covid-19 differ fundamentally in how they spread, which is central to understanding why one can cause pandemics while the other typically does not.

Covid-19, caused by the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, rapidly spread worldwide between 2020 and 2022 because it transmitted easily through respiratory droplets and aerosols, often from people who showed no symptoms. That high transmissibility, quantified by the basic reproduction number (R0), enabled it to surge across continents despite control efforts. In contrast, Nipah virus outbreaks remain sporadic and locally focused, with human transmission occurring mainly through close contact with infected animals (especially fruit bats) or direct contact with bodily fluids from symptomatic patients.

Understanding these biological and epidemiological differences helps counter misinformation and clarify which infectious diseases pose the most realistic pandemic threats, and why some, despite being lethal, may never "go viral" on a global scale.

Nipah Virus: High Fatality, Low Contagion

Nipah virus infection is a zoonotic disease, transmitted from animals (mostly fruit bats of the Pteropus genus) to humans, and occasionally from person to person through direct contact with infected secretions. Unlike Covid-19, which spreads readily via respiratory aerosols and droplets, Nipah's transmission requires close and prolonged contact with an infected individual or contaminated materials. This makes widespread, rapid community spread far less likely than with airborne pathogens.

The case fatality rate of Nipah is high, ranging from 40% to 75% depending on the outbreak and healthcare access, which has fuelled its reputation as a deadly pathogen. But lethality alone does not determine pandemic potential. A disease must also spread easily between people.

Also Read: How A Malaysian Pig Farm Outbreak First Exposed The Deadly Nipah Virus

Transmissibility (R0) Matters: Where Nipah And Covid-19 Differ

Scientists use the basic reproduction number (R0) to assess how contagious a disease is. An R0 above 1 means each infected person, on average, infects more than one other, enabling sustained chains of transmission.

For Covid-19, early R0 estimates ranged from 2 to 3 (and higher for some variants), which helped fuel its global spread. In contrast, available evidence suggests Nipah's R0 is well below 1 in most settings, meaning an infected person typically does not spread it widely in a susceptible population.

This limited transmissibility, combined with the requirement for close contact to spread, is why Nipah outbreaks remain localized and containable, and why it is unlikely to trigger global pandemics like COVID-19.

Why Some Diseases Are More Likely to Cause Pandemics

While Nipah may not go global, other diseases with high transmissibility are more likely candidates for large-scale spread:

1. Measles: A Highly Contagious Classic

Measles is one of the most contagious diseases known, with an R0 between 12-18, far higher than Covid-19. Measles spreads easily through respiratory aerosols and droplets, can infect people before symptoms appear, and can persist on surfaces. In populations with low vaccination coverage, measles can erupt into large outbreaks, and has pandemic potential in under-immunised regions. Global vaccination programmes have largely kept measles in check, but resurgence due to vaccine hesitancy underscores its risk. In fact, recent outbreaks in the USA, Mexico, and large parts of Asia and Africa suggest that many regions are at risk of losing their measles-free status in 2026.

2. Dengue: Vector-Borne Spread With Expanding Reach

Dengue virus is transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, and while it does not spread directly between people, its vector's global range has expanded due to urbanisation and climate change. Dengue outbreaks can affect millions and are challenging to control due to mosquito ecology. Seasonal surges in dengue pose large-scale public health challenges, and although not a pandemic in the classic human-to-human sense, widespread epidemics across tropical regions are common.

3. Zoonotic Diseases: Influenza To Coronaviruses

Several other zoonotic diseases are watched closely by global health authorities because of their ability to adapt, spread, or persist in human populations:

1. Influenza viruses, which are historically responsible for several pandemics due to airborne transmission and genetic shift.
2. Coronaviruses related to SARS and MERS, which are capable of human-to-human spread with significant illness potential.
3. Novel zoonotic viruses from wildlife reservoirs, which may gain efficient human transmissibility through mutation or environmental pressures.

Unlike these pathogens, Nipah's niche transmission dynamics limit its pandemic threat under current conditions.

Also Read: Nipah Virus In India: What Is Actually Going On? Timeline Explained

Public Health Preparedness Matters Most: Shared Across Threats

Public health systems globally remain vigilant against all emergent pathogens, not just Covid-19.

• Surveillance, early detection, contact tracing, and infection control measures remain central to outbreak response. The World Health Organization includes Nipah on its Research and Development Blueprint list of priority diseases due to its potential for outbreaks, even if widespread pandemic spread remains unlikely.
• Investments in One Health approaches, which integrate human, animal and environmental health, are increasingly emphasised to anticipate and mitigate spillover events from wildlife to humans.

Infections like Nipah virus, despite high fatality rates and serious clinical outcomes, are fundamentally constrained by their limited ability to spread efficiently between people. This key difference, low transmissibility, keeps Nipah outbreaks geographically contained and far less likely to become pandemics like Covid-19. By contrast, diseases such as measles (with very high R0 values) and vector-borne illnesses like dengue illustrate how easily transmissible pathogens can cause widespread epidemics. Continued vigilance, vaccination, surveillance and integrated public health strategies remain essential to prevent and control future outbreaks of both familiar and emerging diseases.

Disclaimer: This content, including advice, provides generic information only. It is in no way a substitute for a qualified medical opinion. Always consult a specialist or your own doctor for more information. NDTV does not claim responsibility for this information.