Rajesh Palviya, Head of Research, Axis Direct

The Nifty 50 closed Friday at 23,366.70, down 49.85 points or 0.21%, extending its consolidation phase as the index continued to struggle near the 23,500 mark amid persistent FII selling and lack of fresh domestic triggers. While the decline was modest, market sentiment remains cautious with participants closely monitoring global developments.

Global cues have turned distinctly negative after Wall Street witnessed a sharp sell-off led by technology, semiconductor and AI-linked stocks. The stronger-than-expected US jobs data has reignited concerns that the Federal Reserve could maintain a hawkish stance for longer, resulting in higher bond yields and renewed risk aversion across global equities.

Asian markets have opened on a weak note tracking the overnight decline in US markets, while elevated crude oil prices due to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to pose a concern for import-dependent economies such as India. The indication from GIFT Nifty points towards a gap-down start for domestic equities.

From a technical perspective, the near-term bias remains cautious as long as the Nifty trades below the 23,500-23,550 resistance zone. Immediate support is placed around 23,100, and a sustained breach below this level could trigger further weakness towards the 23,000-22,800 zone. However, despite the negative opening indications, any stability in global markets and easing in crude oil prices could help the index find support at lower levels.

At the open, the total market cap of all BSE Sensex companies fell to Rs 4,58,15,580. It was Rs 4,61,60,199 at the close on Friday.

The people who accumulate wealth are often not the smartest investors in the room. They are simply informed enough to avoid major mistakes. Read full report here

Akshat Siddhant, Lead quant analyst, Mudrex

Bitcoin is stabilising around the $63,000 level after rebounding from a recent low of $59,100, triggered by stronger-than-expected US jobs data. The robust labour market reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep monetary policy restrictive for longer, leading to weakness across risk assets. However, the sell-off pushed Bitcoin's daily RSI to around 15.5, its most oversold level since the March 2020 market crash. Historically, similar RSI readings in 2020 and February 2026 were followed by rebounds of roughly 50 per cent and 30 per cent, respectively. If the same trend continues, Bitcoin could target the $80,000 zone in the coming weeks. For now, holding above the $60,000 support remains critical, as $55,000 serves as the next major support level.

"Bitcoin is trading near $63,041, remaining under pressure as it trades below key moving averages. However, oversold technical conditions, dip-buying activity, and continued long-term accumulation are keeping market participants focused on potential signs of recovery.

Ethereum is trading around $1,684, with short-term momentum remaining weak. At the same time, a recent $55.8 million ETH purchase by a whale investor highlights continued accumulation interest despite the broader market pullback.

On the regulatory front, six U.S. senators have called for changes to bank capital rules related to Bitcoin. This development could improve traditional financial institutions' access to digital assets.

Globally, regulatory frameworks continue to evolve. Greece is working on its first dedicated crypto tax framework, while India has reiterated its 30% tax on crypto gains and 1% TDS on transfers for the 2026 filing season, providing continued clarity around digital asset taxation and reporting requirements."

The Thesis

Friday's Wall Street rout - Nasdaq −4.18% on a hot US jobs print and a chip-stock cascade - followed by weekend Iran-Israel escalation that drove Brent +4.4% to $97, has set up a gap-down open here. Yet Nifty 500 slipped only −0.14% Friday and +₹4,360 cr of DII buying fully absorbed the −₹4,447 cr FII sell - the domestic bid is intact even into this kind of tape.

Where We're Concentrated

Three of five names sit in India-credit and capex financing - PSU power finance, a private bank, and a mid-tier NBFC - businesses paced by domestic credit growth, not global risk appetite. The metals leg is a commodity hedge against an oil-shocked rupee; the IT leg is the classic weak-rupee, lower-beta shelter when the US tape turns. What breaks the thesis: a Brent sustain above $100 that forces RBI's hand, or a disorderly FII exit that overwhelms the domestic flow.

Conviction Picks

Highest Conviction

Tata Consultancy Services

Largest IT name; weak rupee plus a US recession-resistant deal book make it the natural shelter when Wall Street wobbles.

Power Finance Corporation

PSU power-finance NBFC, paced by the India capex cycle and largely insulated from FII flow swings and oil-shock noise.

Federal Bank

Private bank with steady NIM and credit growth; RBI on hold leaves the franchise's earnings power intact through this gap-down.

Capri Global Capital

Mid-tier NBFC levered to MSME credit and gold-loan demand - domestic, dollar-light, with low offshore funding tail risk.

Vedanta

Diversified metals miner that benefits when an oil-shocked rupee and supply fears bid base metals, zinc, and aluminium.

One Thing to Watch

Brent above $100. Today's Brent print is the cleanest tell. A sustained move above the $100 handle drags the rupee, pressures RBI's neutral stance, and reverses the DII bid - the bear case starts there, not on a one-day Nifty 500 gap.

At the close on Friday, the total market cap of all BSE Sensex companies stood at Rs 4,61,60,199.