Avinash Shekhar, Co-Founder & CEO, Pi42

"Bitcoin is once again at an interesting inflection point. Trading around $64,000, the world's largest cryptocurrency is holding above a key support zone while gradually building momentum for its next move. Ethereum continues to consolidate as market participants await a stronger directional trigger, while XRP has managed to stabilize after recent volatility, indicating that capital is rotating selectively across the crypto market rather than chasing broad-based rallies. The current phase reflects a market that is digesting recent gains while preparing for its next decisive move.

Markets rarely move in a straight line, and the current phase is a reminder that consolidation is an essential part of every long-term trend. Rather than viewing subdued price action as inactivity, investors should use this period to reassess portfolios, accumulate fundamentally strong assets systematically, and remain aligned with long-term conviction. The biggest advantage in such environments comes from consistency and discipline, not from attempting to time every market move."

Akshat Siddhant, Lead quant analyst, Mudrex

Crude oil has fallen for a third straight session to around $75 a barrel, its lowest level in three weeks, as optimism grows over a possible agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Unlike recent sessions, precious metals are also advancing, with gold climbing to around $4,100 an ounce and silver surging more than 3% to a three-week high near $59.80. Easing geopolitical tensions have lowered market expectations of a September Federal Reserve rate hike to 57% from 67% just two days ago, supporting precious metals. Additional buying from Chinese gold-backed ETFs is reinforcing gold's rally, with a sustained move above $4,100 potentially opening the way toward $4,200.

Vikram Subburaj, CEO, Giottus.com

Bitcoin traded near $64,260 on Wednesday, gaining about 0.7% over 24 hours, as lower oil prices, falling US Treasury yields and stronger global equities improved risk appetite. However, weak spot demand and cautious derivatives positioning continue to limit the strength of the recovery. Immediate support lies around $63,400-$63,000, followed by $62,000. Resistance is visible near $64,500, with the stronger $65,000-$66,000 region remaining the next hurdle.

On-chain conditions remain mixed. Daily active addresses and transfer volumes have risen above their recent averages, indicating stronger network engagement. Long-term holders also remain resilient, with the ratio of short-term to long-term supply close to historical lows. However, spot turnover remains subdued, net selling pressure persists and options traders continue to seek downside protection. The increase in blockchain activity has therefore not yet translated into broad investor accumulation.

Institutional demand improved at the beginning of August. US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $170.1 million on August 3, following the $265.4 million withdrawal recorded on July 31. August 4 showed a preliminary inflow of $41.2 million. Several completed positive sessions would still be required to establish a durable institutional trend.

Large-cap altcoins were moderately higher. Ethereum gained 0.5% to $1,873, BNB rose 2% to $603, XRP advanced 0.4% to $1.07, Solana added about 0.4% to $73.89 and TRON increased 0.6% to $0.327. BNB led the group, but the limited gains elsewhere indicate selective participation rather than a broad altcoin rally.

The macro backdrop has become slightly more supportive. Brent crude declined to about $79, while the US 10-year Treasury yield eased towards 4.62%. Markets reduced the probability of a September Federal Reserve rate increase to roughly 57%. US job openings fell to 7.36 million in June, but stronger hiring and low layoffs indicate that the labour market remains stable. Friday's employment report is the next major catalyst.

Our advice: Investors should avoid chasing the current move. Staggered accumulation, limited leverage and disciplined position sizing remain preferable until Bitcoin clears $64,500-$66,000 with sustained ETF and spot-market demand.

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Wealth-tech platform Ionic Wealth today announced the launch of Ionic Wealth AI, an institutional-grade wealth intelligence feature designed to deliver personalised portfolio insights.

The feature combines an investor's synced portfolio data for the last 20 years of Mutual Fund

transaction history, through Mutual Fund Central with Ionic's institutional knowledge across markets, macroeconomics & asset classes. It can analyse changes in portfolio and investment behaviour over time, identify recurring patterns and concentration across holdings and use the historical context to surface relevant portfolio insights.

Unlike a conventional portfolio dashboard that presents information or wider AI tools that do not have access to an investor's past financial data, Ionic Wealth AI is designed to retain and connect an investor's financial context over time. It brings an investor's financial history and current portfolio together with Ionic's domain expertise providing insights that reflect both what is happening in the market and how it relates to the investor's own financial journey. Beyond monitoring a portfolio, the feature builds a longitudinal view of their wealth creation journey and applies real-time market developments to deliver insights relevant to their specific circumstances.

Nischal Shetty, Founder, WazirX

"Crypto sentiment improved as hopes of easing US-Iran tensions pushed oil prices down over 4% and supported global risk assets. The Nasdaq gained nearly 1.6%, while falling bond yields improved the backdrop for crypto.

Wintermute's H1 2026 OTC report shows institutions accounted for a record 72% of spot trading volume. While capital has become increasingly concentrated in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and a limited set of DeFi assets, the volatility across these assets have also reduced as a result of institutional accumulation. Retail participation remains fragmented across smaller tokens. As a result, altcoin rallies are likely to become shorter-lived and more selective than in previous cycles.

Bitcoin is trading near $64,176, benefiting from easing US-Iran tensions, lower oil prices, and renewed risk appetite as the S&P 500 reached a record $70 trillion market capitalization. On-chain data showing 155,000 BTC accumulated between $62,000 and $65,000 suggests continued absorption by long-term investors. 

Bitcoin continues to hold above key short-term support after recovering over the past 24 hours. A sustained move above $64,800-$65,000 could trigger fresh long positions. However, failure to hold $63,900-$64,000 may encourage profit-taking and increase the probability of a pullback toward $63,200. Futures traders should closely monitor open interest and funding rates. 

Ethereum has recovered modestly over the past day but remains down on the week, suggesting buyers are still regaining momentum. A decisive break above $1,900 would strengthen the bullish case and could lead to a test of $1,930-$1,950. On the downside, losing $1,850 may increase selling pressure toward $1,820."

Riya Sehgal, Research Analyst, Delta Exchange

Crypto markets are showing signs of stabilization, with Bitcoin reclaiming the $64,000 zone after defending the $62,200-62,400 demand area, while Ethereum has also recovered but continues to lag. The current move appears to be driven more by improving global macro conditions than by a major crypto-specific catalyst. Softer U.S. Treasury yields, a weaker dollar and renewed strength in U.S. equities have improved overall risk appetite, while the absence of a major ETF, regulatory or blockchain-related trigger suggests the recovery is still externally led. Technically, Bitcoin needs a sustained break above $64,500 to target the $65,000-65,600 supply zone, while Ethereum must reclaim $1,880 to confirm a broader breakout.

Gold has strengthened alongside crypto as lower yields and a softer dollar improved demand for non-yielding assets. A sustained hold above the $4,080 breakout zone would keep the upside structure intact, with $4,120-4,150 as the next major resistance band.

In U.S. markets, record highs in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq continue to support sentiment, although earnings season is showing that investors now care more about forward cash flows than headline beats. SpaceX delivered stronger-than-expected revenue and earnings, but the stock reversed lower as attention shifted to elevated AI spending, continued losses and the upcoming insider lock-up expiry. AMD saw a similar reaction. The next major cross-asset catalysts are U.S. ADP employment data and ISM Services PMI.

The Thesis

Brent crude's 5% slide on Strait of Hormuz diplomacy directly compresses India's fuel costs and lifts consumer sentiment into the auto-and-lending complex. Wall Street closed at records - S&P 500 +1.79%, Nasdaq +2.59% - on the same tailwind overnight. With the RBI holding at 5.25%, domestic credit stays accommodative: consumption and the capital cycle align around lower energy.

Where We're Concentrated

Conviction is concentrated in the Indian auto value chain - passenger vehicles (M&M, Hyundai), commercial vehicles (Ashok Leyland), and the NBFCs funding them (Shriram Finance, Bajaj Finserv). Lower Brent connects all five: vehicle economics, freight margins, and household incomes improve in one move. The thesis breaks on crude reversing above $82.

Conviction Picks

Highest Conviction

Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd.

Brent's retreat fuels consumer confidence; India's top-selling UV maker positioned for demand reacceleration.

Shriram Finance Ltd.

Commercial vehicle credit inflects as fuel costs normalize; rate-hold at 5.25% underpins NBFC margin stability.

Hyundai Motor India Ltd.

Passenger car affordability improves as fuel costs ease; domestic order momentum builds on the crude tailwind.

Bajaj Finserv Ltd.

Lower crude eases household budgets, expanding the addressable base for consumer insurance and retail lending.

Ashok Leyland Ltd.

Fuel relief improves freight economics; CV order momentum is building as domestic infrastructure spending accelerates.

One Thing to Watch

Brent reclaiming $82. A sustained move above $82 reverses the fuel-cost tailwind and undercuts the auto and CV-lending thesis simultaneously. Also watch whether Oman-mediated Strait of Hormuz talks produce a concrete reopening timeline - a breakdown risks crude snapping back sharply.

Gaurav Udani, Founder - Thincredblu Securities 

"Nifty Futures is expected to open sharply higher around 24,750, up nearly 200 points, while the Nifty Cash index is likely to open around 24,670, reflecting strong positive global cues and improving market sentiment.

The sharp gap-up indicates that bullish momentum remains intact. 24,550 will act as the immediate support for Nifty Futures, while 24,900 is the key resistance level. A sustained move above 24,900 could trigger fresh buying and pave the way for the next leg of the rally.

The overall market structure continues to remain positive, with improving sentiment and strong participation from the broader market.

Traders should avoid chasing the gap-up opening and instead look to buy on dips near key support levels. As long as Nifty Futures holds above 24,550, the short-term trend remains firmly bullish."

Rajesh Palviya, Head of Research, Axis Direct

The Nifty 50 ended Tuesday at 24,614.90, declining 159.40 points or 0.64% after a strong four-session rally, as investors opted for profit booking ahead of the RBI policy announcement amid heightened geopolitical concerns and elevated crude oil prices. However, the broader market structure remains constructive, supported by resilient domestic fundamentals and improving global risk sentiment.

Global cues have turned favourable overnight. Wall Street witnessed a strong rebound, with the Dow Jones soaring 907.47 points, the S&P 500 advancing 1.79%, and the Nasdaq Composite rallying 2.59%, as easing concerns over the Strait of Hormuz boosted investor confidence and reignited buying in technology stocks.

Asian markets are mixed, with Shanghai trading higher and the Nikkei marginally positive, while the Hang Seng remains under mild pressure.

A key positive for Indian equities is the sharp correction in Brent crude, which has slipped nearly 6% to around $79 per barrel. Lower crude prices are expected to ease inflationary pressures, improve India's macro outlook, and provide support to the rupee. Meanwhile, GIFT Nifty at 24,737.5 indicates a firm start, pointing to an opening gain of nearly 150 points.

The near-term outlook continues to favour the bulls. A sustained move above 24,700 could pave the way for a retest of the 25,000 milestone, while 24,400 is expected to act as immediate support, followed by 24,200. Although the RBI policy announcement remains the key event for the day, supportive global markets, easing crude prices, and improving risk appetite are likely to keep the underlying market sentiment positive.

"BTC remained near $64K, showing little reaction even as global risk assets rallied sharply on hopes of a US-Iran agreement and the possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Falling oil prices pushed Treasury yields lower and reduced expectations of a September Fed rate hike, supporting a strong recovery in US equities. The Nasdaq gained nearly 3%, while the S&P 500 returned to record territory, led by a rebound in AI infrastructure stocks. BTC Holding above $64K would keep the short-term structure positive and could support another attempt at $64,400. If Bitcoin falls below $64K, the next important support levels are around $63,600."

Akshat Siddhant, Lead quant analyst, Mudrex

Bitcoin has regained momentum, trading above $64,000 as easing geopolitical tensions improve sentiment across risk assets. Optimism over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed oil prices down nearly 5%, reducing inflation concerns and lowering the probability of a September rate hike to around 57-59%, from nearly 67%. Meanwhile, Bitcoin futures open interest declined to 740,000 BTC from a July 3 peak of 776,000 BTC. A similar pattern to April, when a full Hormuz reopening triggered $762 million in liquidations, mostly on the short side, suggests another short squeeze. For now, $65,000 continues to act as the major resistance zone while support stands at $62,800. 

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At the close on Tuesday, the total market cap of all BSE Sensex companies stood at Rs 4,89,50,523.