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NDTV's opinion poll: latest all-India forecast

Apr 15, 2014
21:54 (IST)
The NDA crossing the magic 272 is heavily predicated on the BJP winning the 51 seats in UP that NDTV's latest opinion poll shows it winning
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20:09 (IST)
OPINION POLL - METHODOLOGY
 
NDTV has already broadcast two Opinion Polls undertaken in 358 Parliamentary Constituencies.
 
The New Opinion Polls: To understand change in voters' opinion over time, two further separate opinion  polls - this is not an exit poll - have now been undertaken taking the sample size up to over 1 lakh 30 thousand (1,30,000).
 
  1. LAST PRE-VOTING OPINION POLL - CONDUCTED ONLY 1-3 DAYS BEFORE VOTING DAY  (this is not an exit poll) - Telephone Re-contact: A separate telephonic re-contact exercise (telephonic interview with the same respondents who have been earlier tapped in the face opinion polls) is being undertaken 1 - 3 days BEFORE the elections to gauge their shift in opinion over time. This will involve re-contacting about 24000 voters nationally based on a random sample from electoral rolls of voters who have already been questioned earlier and who gave us their mobile phone numbers.
  2.  A separate opinion poll is being conducted simultaneously in a large proportion of constituencies where voting has not yet taken place. This opinion poll is being done BEFORE the voting to reassess the change in views among voters. This will involve a sample of about 15000 voters.
 
Salient Features:
 
  • Respondents for these Opinion Polls are being randomly selected from the Electoral rolls - in case of non-availability of the randomly selected voter / refusal to share opinion, random replacement chosen basis same gender and age-cohort
  • A large number of female interviewers being used - to get better responses from women - especially among sensitive ethnic / religious communities and rural regions
  • Computer Aided Personal Interviews conducted with GPRS enabled tablets to ensure the strict norms of quality control
  • All interviews conducted in the home and not at street corners
  • Through better monitoring of data collectors
  • Better quality of questionnaire administration by controlling the order in which questions are asked through a pre-programmed script and not leaving it to the discretion of the interviewers
  • Making data collection process less intrusive by replacing the ballot box with a much less conspicuous hand-held device
  • Respondent invited to show his / her preference for a political party through a simulated ballot paper (tablet screen that looks like the EVM and respondent can cast his / her vote by touching the screen)        


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