Invasion They Saw Coming: How US, UK Warnings On Ukraine War Went Unheeded

In the months before Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the United States and Britain became increasingly convinced that war was coming. Yet many European governments, even Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, remained sceptical.

A report in The Guardian said the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and MI6 had detailed and accurate information about Russia's invasion plans long before the attack took place. However, many countries did not believe their warnings. Many European officials refused to believe that a full-scale war could happen in Europe in the 21st century.

How The US And UK Were Certain Beforehand

It all started with a phone call in 2021. William Burns, the head of the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), met Russian President Vladimir Putin. At that time, US intelligence agencies had gathered information suggesting that Putin might be planning to invade Ukraine. 

Biden dispatched Burns to deliver a message to Putin that they would face severe economic sanctions and political consequences from the United States and its allies if Russia invaded Ukraine.

Because of Covid restrictions, much of the communication took place on phone calls. Burns warned of serious repercussions if an invasion happened. But Putin changed the topic and focused on his own concerns. He said Russian intelligence had told him that an American warship was in the Black Sea and he believed Russia was at risk.

At the time, US intelligence had already gathered troubling evidence suggesting Moscow was preparing for military action.

Warnings Intensified

By mid-November 2021, Biden sent Avril Haines, director of national intelligence, to Brussels. She attended a meeting of intelligence chiefs from NATO countries. At the meeting, she presented the US assessment: there was now a serious and real possibility that Russia could launch a massive invasion of Ukraine. She was supported by Richard Moore, the head of Britain's MI6. 

However, many officials in the room were sceptical. Some simply did not believe that Russia would launch a full-scale invasion. At the same time, US and British officials believed Russia would be fully ready to attack within about two months.

According to US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, the Americans believed the evidence was overwhelming. "It's not like we held back something that, if only they had seen it, would have made all the difference," he said.

Direct Warnings To Ukraine

At the end of October 2021, the CIA and MI6 sent official memos to Kyiv outlining their new alarming assessments, which strongly suggested that Russia was preparing to invade Ukraine. Eric Green, one of the US officials, told Kyiv, "We will follow up. You'll see the intel. This is not a normal warning; this is really serious. Trust us."

Yet Ukrainian officials appeared unconvinced about the scale and immediacy of the threat.

In November, British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace visited Kyiv and told Zelenskyy that an invasion was a matter of "when," not "if". "You can't fatten up a pig on market day," he told Zelenskyy. Still Ukraine did not fully act on the warnings at that stage.

One of the US intelligence officials said, "In the final weeks, the intelligence leaders were starting to get it, the mood was different. But the political leadership just refused to accept it until right at the end."

Vladimir Putin's Secretive Plan

Putin was extremely secretive about the invasion plan. He did not tell most of his inner circle. Only a very small group of trusted people inside Russia knew about the plan until just a few weeks before the invasion started.

According to Haines, it was not because they had obtained a single invasion blueprint. "Often, it's presented as we found the plans but it definitely was not that simple. None of the intercepted communication openly mentioned that they are invading but some of the actions being discussed only made sense if an invasion was being prepared," she said.

How They Got To Know

Commercial satellite imagery showed tens of thousands of Russian troops moving close to Ukraine's borders. These were not normal military exercises. The size, scale, and positioning of the forces looked unusual and didn't resemble routine exercises. 

None explicitly mentioned an invasion, but many discussions only made sense in the context of war preparations. Logistics, coordination, and positioning that would not be necessary for a simple exercise. Russia began expanding its reservist program by increasing the number of soldiers.

Pro-Russian groups inside Ukraine appeared to be preparing the ground for possible military action. For the first time, intelligence suggested potential military operations west of the Dnipro River, the major river that splits Ukraine in half.  It raised concerns that Russia could aim for Kyiv itself, not just eastern territories.

The Essay That Raised Alarm

About four weeks after the Geneva summit between Biden and Putin, the Russian President published a long essay about Ukraine's history.

In that essay, he argued that Ukraine's "true sovereignty" was only possible if it worked closely with Russia. He went back as far as the ninth century to support his argument. Many people saw this essay as a sign that Putin did not fully accept Ukraine as a separate, independent nation.

At the time, the essay raised concerns in London and Washington. Then, in September 2021, Russia began another military buildup near Ukraine's borders and within a month, the number of troops had grown so large that it was difficult to ignore.

In February 2022, roughly three months after US officials warned NATO allies of an imminent attack, Putin ordered Russian forces into Ukraine. The invasion became the largest and most serious rupture of Europe's security order since World War II.