Explained: All 3 Players In Israel-Iran War Claim Victory. Who Gained What

The ceasefire between Iran and Israel, which brought an end to the 12-day conflict, has relieved the world. The Middle East conflict had sparked fears of a widening global war, especially after the US joined in with Operation Midnight Hammer, under which it bombed three nuclear sites in Iran. While Iranian missiles struck Israeli cities minutes before the ceasefire, this round of attacks appeared to be Tehran's last-minute show of bravado.

This conflict has been full of surprises, especially in the past 12 hours. Last week, the Donald Trump administration said it would decide to join the conflict within two weeks. But two days later, US' B-2 Bombers struck three nuclear facilities in Iran, sparking fears of a major escalation in the geopolitically significant region. Last night, Iran bombed the US' Al Udeid air base in Qatar, triggering fears of the regional conflict widening into a global one. Then, dramatically, Donald Trump announced that Tel Aviv and Tehran had agreed on a truce.

Interestingly, a ceasefire now puts all three players -- the US, Iran and Israel -- in a position of claiming victory. The US can claim it diminished Iran's nuclear capabilities, Israel can boast of weakening Tehran substantially and Iran can brag about standing up to the world's most powerful country and not backing down. Domestic messaging is a key aspect of modern warfare and the propaganda machinery in all three countries is now working overtime to convince the people of their win.

US' Narrative Gain

The US, which for long advocated a diplomatic solution to the conflict, changed tack on Sunday when its B-2 bombers struck three nuclear strikes in Iran. Donald Trump called Iran the "bully of the Middle East" and warned that if Tehran does not "make peace", the attacks that follow will be "far greater and a lot easier". He said Iran's nuclear facilities were "completely and totally obliterated", although top US officials said initial assessment suggested that the sites sustained "extremely severe damage".

Washington, however, knew conflict is not the way forward. Geopolitical considerations aside, a protracted war would be politically harmful for Donald Trump, who has often chided his predecessors for taking the US into "forever wars". Trump knew Tehran would need an exit ramp to step off the escalation path without losing popular domestic support. Hence, after Iran struck the US base in Qatar -- interestingly, after a warning -- Trump decided not to strike back. The US President put out a telling post. "I am pleased to report that NO Americans were harmed, and hardly any damage was done. Most importantly, they've gotten it all out of their 'system,' and there will, hopefully, be no further hate," he said, and thanked Iran for giving "early notice". Trump can now play peacemaker, days after his bombing raid drew criticism at home.

The US lost no personnel in this conflict, demonstrated its firepower amply and claimed credit for brokering peace: a win-win situation.

Israel's Bragging Rights

In the week preceding the US' precision airstrikes, Israel managed to establish its air superiority against Iran by striking nuclear and military targets and neutralising Tehran's air defences. Israel forces also assassinated key figures in Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including Brigadier General Ali Shadmani. Its airstrikes took out Tehran's intelligence hawks, Brigadier General Mohammad Kazemi and Brigadier General Hassan Mohaqe. The massive damage caused by the airstrikes also helped Israel in the perception battle, boosting its image as a dogged fighting force.

Israel's big gain was the US joining the fight. For long, the US had tried to project the conflict as Iran vs Israel and was reluctant to join in. Just nine days before Operation Midnight Hammer, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Israel's action against Iran was "unilateral" and the US is "not involved". But in the coming days, Trump tweaked the US stand, threatening Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and referred to the US and Israel as a unit.

The US airstrikes in Iran demonstrated, not just to Tehran but to the world, that Washington stands firmly with Tel Aviv. Besides the geopolitical image boost, this demonstration would also benefit Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu domestically as he heads into the polls scheduled for next year.

Iran's 'Resistance' Rhetoric

The US airstrikes in Iran had put Tehran in a tricky situation. It needed to retaliate, but its adversary was the world's most powerful nation. It needed to save face while ensuring an exit ramp. According to reports, the Ayatollah, from inside a bunker, ordered that Iran must strike back, but in a contained manner to prevent the conflict from spiralling. The Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar was chosen. The largest US military base in the region, Iranian officials believed it was key in coordinating Operation Midnight Hammer. The fact that Qatar is Iran's close ally made this a good choice, too.

Interestingly, Iran sent out an advance notice hours before striking the US base. This message prompted Qatar to shut down its airspace and the US to clear the target area. "Iran has officially responded to our Obliteration of their Nuclear Facilities with a very weak response, which we expected, and have very effectively countered," Trump said, while thanking Tehran for the notice.

A pre-strike warning is clearly a signal that while Tehran wanted to show strength, it had no intention to begin a cycle of attacks. Iran knew that if Americans died in its attack, the US would be prompted to respond. But the warning and no casualties ensured that Trump did not need to respond. And Iran stood down too. As for its attacks on Israel, Tehran kept firing missiles till minutes before the ceasefire kicked in. So, missiles were fired, but no one died, and Iran got its exit ramp to stand down. At the same time, it managed to boost its image of standing up to the most powerful country in the world. 

All Is Well? Maybe Not

The ceasefire in the Middle East is welcome and relieves world powers, who were concerned about the economic and geopolitical fallout of a long-drawn-out war in the region. But this is a fragile peace. While the US claims Iran's nuclear facilities have taken a severe hit, Tehran has denied this. This conflict has also given Tehran more reasons to boost its nuclear power. And Western powers have admitted that they are not sure what has happened to Iran's uranium stockpile. So while the ceasefire is a relief, many questions remain and the world hopes that the players come back to the negotiation table and diplomacy establishes lasting peace.