Hamas "Already Violating" Gaza Peace Deal: Ex-Israeli Defence Spokesman

Two years after Hamas's attack on October 7, 2023, celebration mingles uneasily with caution in Israel. All 20 hostages held by Hamas have finally returned home, which is "a strategic game changer," says Lieutenant Colonel Jonathan Conricus, former international spokesperson of the Israel Defense Forces and now a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). But in a wide-ranging conversation with NDTV's Aditya Raj Kaul set against the backdrop of the new Gaza peace plan, Conricus insists the hardest tests lie ahead and that Hamas "is already violating the agreement."

"I'm a realist," he said. "I don't expect Hamas to actually fulfill the agreement." Conricus argues that while the release of the living captives removes Hamas's single biggest lever over Israel, the group has "failed to hand over 28 bodies of murdered Israeli hostages, returning only four," a move he characterises as an early breach designed to "play games and prolong phase one" by using remains as political leverage. The key question now, he says, is how Israel responds-and whether the violation triggers diplomatic penalties, domestic pressure for retaliation, or even a return to military operations.

The former IDF spokesman frames the deal as a sequenced, conditions-based pathway: first, return all hostages-living and dead; second, disarm Hamas; third, force the group to relinquish its governing role in Gaza; and fourth, stand up an interim international administration. "Stage four cannot happen before stage two," he cautions, arguing that no country will deploy a stabilisation force to "stare down Hamas" before the group is disarmed. "There's very little appetite for casualties," he notes, adding that he is yet to see any nation readying troops for such a mission.

If the truce breaks down, Conricus believes the battlefield dynamics will look very different without Israeli hostages in Hamas's tunnel network. "Those tunnels will become death traps," he says, claiming Israel would be able to use "totally different tactics" if forced back into combat.

He also voices concern about prisoner releases embedded in the deal. While Israel refused to free "the worst terrorist leaders," Conricus says some 250 convicted militants with multiple life sentences have been let go, warning that Hamas will try to regenerate cadres not only in Gaza but also in safe havens abroad. That risk, he argues, underscores a broader lesson: unless governments put in place legislative, legal, diplomatic and military tools that make hostage-taking "unprofitable," other terror groups will try to copy "the October 7 playbook."

Conricus is sceptical of some regional actors' roles in the peace architecture, alleging that countries such as Qatar and Turkey are "active supporters of Hamas." Asked about Pakistan's participation in an Islamic coalition backing the deal, he draws a straight line between Hamas leaders' contacts with proscribed groups and what he calls the "utilitarian" approach of deal-making. Still, he credits the initiative's unorthodox diplomacy, "It has delivered results where other types have not" and says it deserves "the benefit of the doubt" if the sequencing is enforced.

For India, he sees an expanding strategic horizon with Israel that goes beyond counter-terrorism to agriculture, med-tech and industry. Praising India's peacekeepers and a "braver stand" in recent years, he says shared democratic values and common threats create "great room to grow" the partnership.

Peace or relapse into war? Conricus doesn't pretend to know. But he is clear on one point: with the hostages back home and Hamas's leverage diminished, what happens next will be decided by whether the deal's early commitments are enforced swiftly and in full.