President Donald Trump may appear chaotic on the world stage, but his leadership is triggering strategic recalculations in Beijing, according to Parag Khanna, Founder and CEO of AlphaGeo, an AI-based geospatial predictive analytics firm.
Speaking to NDTV CEO and Editor in Chief Rahul Kanwal, Khanna said, "When you look at the impact of Trump on China, it isn't all one thing. Again, looking from the outside, many people say, well, Trump is so erratic that it strengthens China's hand."
But that view, he argued, misses crucial shifts in global military and economic alignments. "It depends on the specific situation," Khanna explained. "It certainly weakens China's hand when it comes to maritime and naval and submarine mobility around the North Atlantic, because the United States and NATO countries, to the extent there is functional operational cooperation still among them, which the way there is, and it's very strong, is going to be very focused on Chinese and Russian activity in the Arctic even more so than before. And so this is a setback for China, just to be clear."
Khanna emphasized that the strategic map is shifting beyond visible flashpoints like Greenland. "Now, when it comes to Greenland itself, you know, the truth lies in satellite imagery and data and in subterranean analysis of the mineral deposits and so forth. There are some, but not necessarily a whole lot more than one would extract if one had total transparency over the various minerals that exist in Canada itself, in Argentina, in many, many other countries in the world."
Mine to Magnet Connection
"What's more important than Greenland per se is a new transnational initiative... the line mine to magnet, right, M to M," he said. "And it's part of this overall, you may be more familiar with Pax Silica, right, and this is a twin set of initiatives that is not replacing the global multilateral system, but it's the U.S. saying, let's focus on what matters to us and to others as well, and build these coalitions of the willing."
Khanna listed strategic sectors now being ring-fenced. "Right now, what are all of the very strategic categories of supply chains and products and so forth that we want to ensure we have zero dependency on China. Semiconductor supply chains, electric vehicle, batteries, rare earth, critical minerals, and even medical equipment, as we learned during COVID."
He said this effort spans key global partners. "Identifying these key areas and saying, let's partner with India, let's partner with Singapore, let's partner with the United Arab Emirates, and with, of course, Canada as part of it. European countries are part of it."
A Whole New World
Khanna pointed to a quiet but decisive realignment. "Spanning the transatlantic and Indo-Pacific communities, you have a network now of well over a dozen countries who all share an interest in not being entirely dependent, beholden to China, for any one particular thing."
"So this is an example of the U.S. literally leading a new set of multilateral efforts that are very, very fundamentally national security, geopolitically strategic right now. But from the standpoint of typical critical optics, we're saying he's ripping apart the system."
"There's literally a new system that is being built right now, one thematic, functional area at a time. And that's not necessarily bad."
"You would not turn to the United Nations and say, please help us create diversified supply chains and critical minerals, or that's not going to happen," Khanna said.
He also shared with a view toward 2030. "We can actually, from a geopolitical lens, very clearly discern certain things that will be self-evident. More regionalism, more multi alignment, more functional coalitions among like-minded states."
"Some will be doing belt and road projects, some will be part of U.S. led critical minerals exchange networks, and so forth. That's exactly what is happening right now. It's hardly a fight or fancy to predict that we'll have a lot more of that just five years from now."
