Is Manga's July 5 Earthquake Prediction Going To Come True? What We Know

A manga novel has predicted that a mega-earthquake will hit Japan today, July 5. The 2021 reprint of 'The Future I Saw' by Ryo Tatsuki, a retired manga artist who is also known as the "New Baba Vanga", warns that a "huge" tsunami will wash over countries in the Pacific Ocean. This prediction has triggered widespread panic and has sparked concerns from some superstitious tourists about travelling to Japan. Last month, Tatsuki tried to dampen the speculation, saying in a statement issued by her publisher that she was "not a prophet" and that the megearthquake may not happen. But she fell short of entirely withdrawing her statement, per Time Magazine. 

Seismologists insist that earthquake predictions are scientifically impossible. However, fans believe Tatsuki because she seemingly predicted the devastating Tohoku earthquake and tsunami in 2011, which claimed the lives of nearly 20,000 people and caused the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant disaster. 

What has manga predicted? 

Online buzz originated from a 2021 manga called "The Future I Saw" by Ryo Tatsuki.  According to the prediction, a crack will emerge under the seabed between Japan and the Philippines, triggering a tsunami three times larger than the one in 2011. While the book contains no scientific backing, some have interpreted it as a prediction of a catastrophic event that will occur today, July 5. Social media videos and posts spreading the rumour have gained widespread traction, especially in East Asia (Hong Kong, Taiwan, China, South Korea). 

Tatsuki, dubbed Japan's "Baba Vanga", rose to prominence after she seemingly predicted the 9.0-magnitude earthquake which struck Japan's northern Tohoku region in 2011. According to the South China Morning Post, the manga's cover included the words "massive disaster in March 2011", leading some to believe that she foresaw the event over a decade beforehand. Fans also claim Tatsuki predicted the unexpected deaths of Princess Diana and musician Freddie Mercury, as well as the COVID-19 pandemic.

Moreover, a swarm of over 1,000 earthquakes near Japan's Tokara Islands and a volcanic eruption on Mount Shinmoe in Kyushu have also reignited fears, as they coincide with the manga's predicted timeline. Though seismologists dismiss any link, the timing has amplified public concern.

Will the "megaquake" prophecy come true?

Japan is one of the most earthquake-prone countries in the world. However, scientists have said scientifically-based earthquake prediction is "impossible".

But as the manga prediction continues to generate buzz online, seismologists dismissed the likelihood of the "prediction" coming to pass. "At the moment, it is still impossible to predict an earthquake with specific timing, location or its magnitude," the Japan Meteorological Agency said, calling any such prediction "a hoax" and "disinformation," per SCMP. 

Tatsuki herself appeared to have dampened the speculation, saying in a statement that she was "not a prophet". She urged readers not to be "overly swayed" by her dreams and "act appropriately based on expert opinions". 

The Japanese government has also warned about the earthquake speculation, saying that it was "regrettable that people are being affected by baseless information in this age of modern science". 

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But it is imperative to note that the Japanese authorities have warned that there is an 80% chance of a magnitude 9 earthquake originating from the Nankai Trough occurring before 2055. According to SCMP, this earthquake is expected to cause catastrophic destruction, with the government estimating a death toll of up to 300,000 and $2 trillion in economic damage.

The manga prediction impact 

The viral rumours of impending disaster have reportedly spooked tourists. According to Reuters, Japan saw a record number of visitors this year, with April setting an all-time monthly high of 3.9 million travellers. However, this dipped in May, with arrivals from Hong Kong down 11% year-on-year. Some airlines, including Hong Kong Airlines and Greater Bay Airlines, have also cancelled flights to Japanese cities, citing low passenger demand.

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Travel agencies have blamed the wild "megaearthquake" rumours. "The rumours have had a significant impact," said Huen, adding that his firm had seen its Japan-related business halve. Discounts and the introduction of earthquake insurance had "prevented Japan-bound travel from dropping to zero," said Steve Huen of Hong Kong-based travel agency EGL Tours. 

However, it remains unclear whether the manga prediction is the main reason why some Hong Kong visitors are steering clear.

Notably, Japan experiences about 1,500 earthquakes a year. The country has spent decades putting earthquake preparedness plans in place. Given the history and frequency of earthquakes in the country, the panic is understandable. However, experts have strongly urged the public not to take irrational actions driven by anxiety. 

Professor Naoya Sekiya from the University of Tokyo emphasised the importance of preparedness for disasters at any time, rather than focusing on unsubstantiated predictions.