Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan faces a no-trust vote
Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan's future looked increasingly in doubt today after a key coalition partner switched allegiance ahead of a parliamentary no-confidence vote that could be held as early as this weekend. "Imran Khan is a player who fights till the last ball. There will not be a resignation. There will be a match, both friends and foes will watch it," tweeted Pakistan Minister Fawad Chaudhry. No Prime Minister in Pakistan's history has seen out a full term, and Mr Khan is facing the biggest challenge to his rule since being elected in 2018, with opponents accusing him of economic mismanagement and foreign-policy bungling. Debate on the no-confidence motion is due to start on Thursday, leaving Mr Khan scrambling to keep his own Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) members on side -- as well as a slew of minority parties.
Here are the updates on Imran Khan:
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Imran Khan cancels speech to nation, amid resignation buzz, after meet with Pak Army chief: Pak media
Imran Khan no-trust vote: Meeting with militaryPakistan Army chief and the head of Inter-Services Intelligence met with Imran Khan.
Imran Khan no-trust vote: What's his strategy?
Imran Khan has ordered all PTI legislators to remain absent from the assembly on the day of the vote to mitigate any chance of dissidents secretly supporting the motion to remove him. Absenteeism would not hurt Mr Khan's cause because he doesn't need to win; he just needs to ensure that the opposition cannot get the 172 votes needed to pass the no-confidence motion. Mr Khan has also filed a petition in the courts seeking lifetime electoral bans against on those found to have broken ranks, in a bid to dissuade potential dissidents.
Imran Khan no-trust vote: Is the vote close?
Imran Khan faces a tight vote. He became Prime Minister after his party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI), won the most seats in the 2018 general elections. However, the PTI did not have a simple majority by itself and had to form a coalition with other parties. The PTI has 155 members and Khan crossed the 172-vote threshold to be elected prime minister in 2018 with the help of coalition partners. The PTI-led coalition increased its numbers over the past three years.
Imran Khan no-trust vote: What happens after vote?If Imran Khan loses the vote, parliament can continue to function until its five-year tenure ends in August 2023, after which a general election is due within 60 days. There will be a vote in the National Assembly to elect a new Prime Minister to serve until then. Candidates can be put forward by any party with legislators in the assembly. The new Prime Minister can, however, call a general election immediately, without waiting until 2023. Some constitutional analysts say the assembly can be dissolved and a general election held if no candidate can secure a majority of votes to become the Prime Minister.
Imran Khan no-trust vote: How does no-confidence vote work
Under the Pakistan Constitution, a Prime Minister is elected by a majority of the lower house National Assembly, which has 342 members. A candidate needs a majority of legislators, 172, to vote for him to become Prime Minister. That is the same number of votes against him in a no-confidence vote needed to oust him and dissolve his cabinet. So Mr Khan could survive a no-confidence vote even if he got fewer votes than the opposition but only if the latter did not get the 172 votes that make up a majority in the 342-seat house.
Imran Khan no-trust vote: One likely optionOne card up Imran Khan's sleeve would be to call an early election -- the next one must be held before October 2023. "The best option in this situation would have been fresh elections to enable the new government to handle economic, political and external problems faced by the country," said political analyst Talat Masood, a retired general.
Imran Khan no-trust vote: Who could head next Pakistan government?If Imran Khan loses the vote, a new government could be headed by PML-N's Shehbaz Sharif, the brother of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who has not returned since being released from jail in 2021 to get medical treatment abroad. Also given a senior role will likely be the PPP's Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, son of assassinated former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto and ex-President Asif Zardari.
Imran Khan no-trust vote: "Fights till last ball," says Imran Khan's colleague"Imran Khan is a player who fights till the last ball. There will not be a resignation. There will be a match, both friends and foes will watch it," tweets Pakistan Minister Fawad Chaudhry.
Imran Khan no-trust vote: Losing military's support
Some analysts say Imran Khan has also lost the crucial support of the military -- claims both sides deny -- and Pakistan's army is key to political power. There have been four military coups -- and at least as many unsuccessful ones -- since Pakistan's independence in 1947, and the country has spent more than three decades under army rule.
Imran Khan no-trust vote: Feuding dynasties
The PML-N and PPP dominated national politics for decades until Imran Khan forged a coalition against the usually feuding dynastic groups. He was elected after promising to sweep away decades of entrenched corruption and cronyism, but has struggled to maintain support with inflation skyrocketing, a feeble rupee and crippling debt.
"Details will be announced"
Senior MQM-P leader Faisal Subzwari tweeted Wednesday that his party had finalised an agreement with the opposition, led by the Pakistan People Party (PPP) and Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N). "Details will be formally announced today," he said.
In the past
In the past, Pakistan parties have also resorted to physically preventing lawmakers from voting against key legislation by blocking access to the national assembly, leading to cat-and-mouse chases and even accusations of kidnapping.
What could happen
More than a dozen PTI lawmakers have also indicated they will cross the floor, although party leaders are trying to get the courts to prevent them from voting.
Numbers game
On paper, Imran Khan's PTI and coalition partners have 176 seats in the 342-member assembly, but on Wednesday the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM-P) said its seven lawmakers would vote with the opposition, which has a combined 163 seats.