How Trump's Road To Russia-Ukraine Deal Could Differ On Paper And Ground

US President Donald Trump on Monday had said that Russia and Ukraine would have to swap land with each other as a part of a potential peace agreement. "There'll be some land swapping going on," Trump said. "I know that through Russia and through conversations with everybody, to the good of Ukraine."

He admitted that Russia has occupied "very prime territory" and that there would be efforts to take back some of it for Ukraine. He also noted that his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on 15th August in Alaska would be a "feel-out meeting" to judge whether Russia is willing to make a deal.

Currently, Russia holds 20 per cent of Ukraine's territory, while Ukraine barely holds any Russian land.

Donetsk which is a part of Ukraine is heavily under Russian control. After US special envoy Steve Witkoff's recent Moscow visit, the proposal claimed that Kyiv would have to cede the remaining parts of Donetsk in return for the fight being halted and freezing of the front line. 

This would also mean handing Russia parts of the territory it has occupied from regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Crimea.

Although Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is ready to cede territory, it will only agree to a peace settlement if it comes with a Nato membership, and security guarantees, according to The Telegraph.

Moscow wants to retain its stronghold over Donetsk and Luhansk as it is a region rich in coal, heavy industry and infrastructure. Moreover, it has been at the heart of the conflict since 2014. As a key condition of the ceasefire deal, Moscow is also opposed to Ukraine becoming a NATO member.

Scenes From Ukraine

A report by CNN shows how for residents in Sloviansk, the deal seems dark and surreal. Local journalist Mykhailo said that the news of a ceasefire for the parts of Donbas has caused "panic" among people. "Many of my friends want to stay here and we all will have to leave," he said, adding, "But frankly speaking I don't think it is going to happen."

The town was originally taken by Moscow's proxy "separatists" in 2014, after which Ukraine retook control of the region. Trenches had been dug west of Sloviansk in case Russia's offensive might again take aim at the town. However, the idea of the United States potentially giving their home away has distressed the residents.

Where Does The Peace Agreement Stand

Trump had called for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. While Ukraine accepted it in March, Russia did not, and since then the latter has doubled the attacks since Trump entered office.

Recently, the pressure on Russia has been increased by the US, with Trump threatening to impose sanctions on the country if it fails to accept a ceasefire. Not just that, but Trump has even increased tariffs on India because it is a buyer of Russian oil. 

Trump stated that America's steep tariffs on India over its import of Russian oil have dealt a "big blow" to Moscow's economy, which he said was not performing well. Apart from penalising Russia, the US President has promised military support to Ukraine via NATO allies.

Trump also announced at the White House a potential follow-up meeting with the leaders of both the countries of Russia and Ukraine. "The next meeting will be with Zelensky and Putin, or Zelensky and Putin and me. I'll be there if they need. But I want to have a meeting set up between the two leaders, because there'll be some land swapping going on", he said.

With these conditions in place, it is interesting to watch how the countries will navigate their meeting in Alaska.